FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)
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  FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)
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Author Topic: FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)  (Read 4875 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2016, 07:23:52 AM »

Is it strange that Trump has better favorable, when he's leading?

Trump is leading in this particular poll at odds with most polls.
It is correlated.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2016, 07:25:11 AM »

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.

But they also had Trump winning Iowa in the primary and Clinton beating Sanders by a lot more than the actual margin.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2016, 07:27:37 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.
Trump gets 36% vs 51% in two-way according to this poll. With MOE of 7%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2016, 07:28:43 AM »

Luckily, I'm pretty sure NYT Upshot / Siena is going to do one more voter file poll here before Election Day.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2016, 07:29:08 AM »

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.

But they also had Trump winning Iowa in the primary and Clinton beating Sanders by a lot more than the actual margin.

It is likely an outlier, but you are just pathetic... sigh...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2016, 07:29:09 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.
Trump gets 36% vs 51% in two-way according to this poll. With MOE of 7%
Read wrong number, but the principle still stands. 
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2016, 07:32:18 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 07:34:21 AM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.
Trump gets 36% vs 51% in two-way according to this poll. With MOE of 7%
Read wrong number, but the principle still stands.  
In SurveyUSA that had Clinton+3, Trump got MORE Hispanics in 4-way:

Cuban 49% and Non-Cuban Hispanic 37% Wink

SurveyUSA
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2016, 07:33:27 AM »

Trump has only a -5 favorability rating in this poll (Clinton is at -9).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2016, 07:34:00 AM »

Trump has only a -5 favorability rating in this poll (Clinton is at -9).

Lol, poor Selzer.
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PollsDontLie
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2016, 07:34:10 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.

Yes, let's unskew the polls.  That always turns out really well.

I'll offer an alternative explanation -- Floridian Cuban Hispanics have typically voted Republican in greater percentages than Hispanics from other regions.  That hasn't been the case this cycle because, quite frankly, Trump is toxic to ethnic minorities.  However, it's possible that this group of voters is coming "home", either as a result of Rubio's candidacy or otherwise.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2016, 07:35:31 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.

Yes, let's unskew the polls.  That always turns out really well.

I'll offer an alternative explanation -- Floridian Cuban Hispanics have typically voted Republican in greater percentages than Hispanics from other regions.  That hasn't been the case this cycle because, quite frankly, Trump is toxic to ethnic minorities.  However, it's possible that this group of voters is coming "home", either as a result of Rubio's candidacy or otherwise.
Or something more obvious the poll is an outlier.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2016, 07:39:19 AM »

Selzer is a great poll and they are never afraid to show different results. They may be up to something. I'm looking forward to more polls from FL.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2016, 07:40:23 AM »

Lol, average and move on Cheesy
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PollsDontLie
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2016, 07:41:01 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.

Yes, let's unskew the polls.  That always turns out really well.

I'll offer an alternative explanation -- Floridian Cuban Hispanics have typically voted Republican in greater percentages than Hispanics from other regions.  That hasn't been the case this cycle because, quite frankly, Trump is toxic to ethnic minorities.  However, it's possible that this group of voters is coming "home", either as a result of Rubio's candidacy or otherwise.
Or something more obvious the poll is an outlier.

Also possible, for sure.  I'll just say, though, that the Atlas population tends to describe all polls highly unfavorable to their preferred candidate as "outliers".  That isn't always the case -- again, look at Seltzer's final Ernst +7 poll in 2014 when the other pollsters were herding around +3ish.  In fact, Ernst won by more than 8.

So am I saying Trump is necessarily really up 2 in Florida?  Probably not.  This is MoE stuff.  And even if he was, Clinton's superior ground game probably propels her to victory there.  What I am saying, though, is that this reflexive "it must be an outlier" response should be tempered.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2016, 07:44:28 AM »

Selzer is a great poll and they are never afraid to show different results. They may be up to something. I'm looking forward to more polls from FL.

We had like 10 Florida polls the last week. I think that's more than enough to get a grip of the situation.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #40 on: October 26, 2016, 07:45:04 AM »

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.

Yes, let's unskew the polls.  That always turns out really well.

I'll offer an alternative explanation -- Floridian Cuban Hispanics have typically voted Republican in greater percentages than Hispanics from other regions.  That hasn't been the case this cycle because, quite frankly, Trump is toxic to ethnic minorities.  However, it's possible that this group of voters is coming "home", either as a result of Rubio's candidacy or otherwise.
Or something more obvious the poll is an outlier.

Also possible, for sure.  I'll just say, though, that the Atlas population tends to describe all polls highly unfavorable to their preferred candidate as "outliers".  That isn't always the case -- again, look at Seltzer's final Ernst +7 poll in 2014 when the other pollsters were herding around +3ish.  In fact, Ernst won by more than 8.
When the average has her up by three, and this comes out 5 points to the right, it seems to look like an outlier to me.  Something that far off should be treated with salt by all.
And Selzier does poll white people very well, when it comes to other groups, they seem to throw sh**t at the wall.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #41 on: October 26, 2016, 07:51:05 AM »

We've had like 1,000 Florida polls. Outliers happen.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #42 on: October 26, 2016, 08:01:15 AM »

Many a red avatar and blue avatar have dismissed Selzer as "outlier"
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #43 on: October 26, 2016, 08:04:20 AM »

Many a red avatar and blue avatar have dismissed Selzer as "outlier"

For someone whose only been here for this cycle, thats a bold and untrue claim. Selzer laid an egg during the Iowa caucus, thats a fact.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2016, 08:06:58 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 08:15:38 AM by BoAtlantis »

Selzer is a great poll and they are never afraid to show different results. They may be up to something. I'm looking forward to more polls from FL.

We had like 10 Florida polls the last week. I think that's more than enough to get a grip of the situation.

Somewhat agreed, if other polls in the coming week shows tie or +1 Clinton, it means many polls could have been herding all along.

We'll also have to keep observing the trend on early voting for the next week. Hillary is off to a nice start.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2016, 08:07:28 AM »

Each pollster has laid an egg once upon the time. That's a fact Roll Eyes
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #46 on: October 26, 2016, 08:16:20 AM »

if unlikely voters don't vote they are right.

we can judge that before november 8th.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: October 26, 2016, 08:23:59 AM »

if unlikely voters don't vote they are right.

we can judge that before november 8th.

If you trust this guy (Obama's 08 FL guy):

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #48 on: October 26, 2016, 08:35:48 AM »

yeah, as i said.

we just need to wait if this trend holds.

it's not really Selzier's fault if the electorate is "strange" this year. their model must work with "normal" assumptions not outlier years.

i am panicker in chief but i think, even while there are - for the 1000000th time - signs for a trump rebound, this should be too late.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #49 on: October 26, 2016, 08:36:17 AM »

Many a red avatar and blue avatar have dismissed Selzer as "outlier"

For someone whose only been here for this cycle, thats a bold and untrue claim. Selzer laid an egg during the Iowa caucus, thats a fact.
Really, so they nail two cycles in a row but then a primary poll throws off their credibility....that's nice. Also I've only been on this "forum" for a cycle but I've been watching polls for much longer than that.
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