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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12  (Read 4232 times)
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 38,043

« on: October 25, 2016, 03:40:09 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.

On top of that, some of the more marginal Pub seats have talented Pub incumbents. That is worth a few points off the top. Absent such incumbents, most of those marginals would go to the Dems this time.
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