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December 01, 2020, 04:00:21 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12  (Read 4575 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,472
United States

« on: October 25, 2016, 03:37:03 PM »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.  Anything between ~7 and 10%, and control of the House could go either way.
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