AZ-Monmouth: Trump +1

[Maxwell]

woah - a real pollster in Arizona. Nice!

[Maxwell]

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

[Maxwell]

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

[Maxwell]

I'm just warning you guys not to get too rollicking, that's all.

A lot can still change ...

I remember that back in 2004, many Democrats thought Kerry would win and were surprised he didn't. So I'm just careful this time. But don't get me wrong: Even I think Hillary is clearly favoured (based on polls in VA and CO).

Democrats in 2004 had no basis to think that because Kerry was behind in the polls. That has no bearing on this race. It's a complete non-sequitor. I mean you've been on this forum for years you should probably know better.

[Maxwell]

There is enough time for the media to start spinning it as a close race, and then the undecideds may decide to break for him.

The undecided have recorded something like 80% disapproval of Trump and high approvals of Obama. There is no untapped reservoir of Trump support out there.

And Hillary?

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How high?

Gallup shows Obama approvals at 55%, Clinton at around a net -12 favorables, and Trump at a net -30 favorables.