Interesting to note is the "4-in-10 say they have already voted". Elect project currently says about 0.5 million early votes have been cast in Arizona. If 4-in-10 eventual voters had actually already cast their ballot would be correct, this would imply about 1.25 million voters in total. In 2012 however, there were a total of 2.3 million votes in Arizona.
Even being very generous (lots of absentee ballots already sent back in but not yet registered) the discrepancy seems big. Does this say something Monmouth's LV screen? About self-selection of people willing to answer polls?
