NC - PPP: Burr + 1
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  NC - PPP: Burr + 1
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Author Topic: NC - PPP: Burr + 1  (Read 1026 times)
Ronnie
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« on: October 24, 2016, 10:31:14 AM »

Burr 42%
Ross 41%
Haugh 6%

BUT, there is a caveat:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/democrats-leading-big-in-nc-early-voting.html
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 10:33:29 AM »

Clinton is going to pull Cooper and Ross over the finish line.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 10:50:53 AM »

Missouri and North Carolina are really going to be nerve racking if these kinds of numbers keep up until Nov 8th.

Positive sign for Ross I suppose is that the LCV alone is funding a 3 million ad buy against Burr through election day, and included Ross in a 2.6 million dollar mailer campaign.

Hopefully Clinton's superior GOTV and the GOP's tanking turnout numbers will pull Ross (and Cooper) over the finish line.
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 11:02:14 AM »

Com'on Burr!! YOU CAN DO IT!!!
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MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 11:03:34 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 11:06:19 AM by TN Volunteer »

I have a gut feeling Burr will win, even if Democrats retake the Senate. Interesting that Burr is doing so much better than Dole in 2008 and Roy Blunt this year.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 11:09:15 AM »

In the PPP poll on October 25, 2012 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1025.pdf), so exactly 4 years ago, they found Barack Obama with a 57/42 advantage over Mitt Romney among those who already voted (Romney won the state 50/48), and Walter Dalton with a 49/44 advantage over Pat McCrory (who won the state 55/43). Thus, both Republican candidates overperformed their current margins by 17 points in the final election.

This is a scary precedent for the current crop of Republicans, since unless they can manage to improve more markedly than they did 4 years ago, Clinton will win NC by 9 points, along with Ross+1 and Cooper+10.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 11:15:10 AM »

wow the early voting numbers are insane

among people who have already voted:

63% Hillary
37% Trump

61% Cooper
33% McCrory

52% Ross
34% Burr

60% Democratic state legislature candidate
32% Republican




also 7% of people who early voted apparently don't remember who they voted for in the Senate race?! I assume most of those people voted D like they did in the other races, so once you take that into account Burr probably wouldn't have a lead in this poll anymore
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 11:32:59 AM »

wow the early voting numbers are insane

among people who have already voted:

63% Hillary
37% Trump

61% Cooper
33% McCrory

52% Ross
34% Burr

60% Democratic state legislature candidate
32% Republican




also 7% of people who early voted apparently don't remember who they voted for in the Senate race?! I assume most of those people voted D like they did in the other races, so once you take that into account Burr probably wouldn't have a lead in this poll anymore

I hope Monmouth asked about the early vote as well.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 11:46:19 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2016-10-22

Summary: D: 41%, R: 42%, I: 6%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Blackacre
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 01:26:32 PM »

wow the early voting numbers are insane

among people who have already voted:

63% Hillary
37% Trump

61% Cooper
33% McCrory

52% Ross
34% Burr

60% Democratic state legislature candidate
32% Republican




also 7% of people who early voted apparently don't remember who they voted for in the Senate race?! I assume most of those people voted D like they did in the other races, so once you take that into account Burr probably wouldn't have a lead in this poll anymore

One of these things is not like the others...

Did early voters just skip the senate race? That bodes terribly for Ross
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El muerdago es mortal si te lo comes
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2016, 12:24:43 AM »

Hagan was like this against Tillis in 2014.
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