Two weeks out: How does Clinton do in the Electoral College?
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  Two weeks out: How does Clinton do in the Electoral College?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How will Hillary Clinton fare in the electoral college?
#1
Better than Obama 2008		  
#2
Worse than Obama 2008, but better than Obama 2012		  
#3
Worse than Obama 2012, but still wins		  
#4
She will lose		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 125

Author Topic: Two weeks out: How does Clinton do in the Electoral College?  (Read 3205 times)
ShamDam
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« on: October 24, 2016, 03:07:52 PM »
Remember that redistricting has resulted in a less favorable map. You could take the Obama 2008 map, switch out Arizona for Indiana, and still end up with a slightly worse result for Clinton.

(By the way, these roughly correspond to the possible results as outlined by FiveThirtyEight: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-there-are-4-ways-this-election-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/)
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 03:10:44 PM »
Option 3.
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Baki
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 03:14:54 PM »
Obama 2012 + NC - IA.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 03:19:20 PM »
Option 2

Obama 2012+NC+AZ-IA.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 03:22:47 PM »
2012 + NC + AZ
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM »
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 03:36:48 PM »
Slightly worse than Obama '12.  She picks up NC and NE-02, but loses IA, OH, and ME-02.  Utah goes to McMullin.  That's a 323-209-6 margin.
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Hammy
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 03:41:48 PM »
2012 without Ohio or Iowa, barring reduced turnout.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 03:43:14 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.
I have her at 359. 348 is also likely.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 03:44:49 PM »
This is my current map:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 03:50:45 PM »

Same for me except with a dark-horse Red Alaska.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2016, 04:30:25 PM »
She will lose
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2016, 04:33:51 PM »

What pushed you back into la la land?
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2016, 04:40:44 PM »

Down 5 with 15 days left..take the ABC and CNN polls..made up 7 points in 1 day.

7 x 15=105

Means he is on pace for 100%-0% win

add in the fraud and it may be closer to Trump +98
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2016, 04:43:08 PM »
341.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2016, 04:45:05 PM »

This, exactly.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2016, 04:46:12 PM »
Between 08 and 12, most likely.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2016, 05:01:42 PM »

Based on?
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JMT
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2016, 05:09:33 PM »

I also think this will be the result. I would also add that I think McMullin wins Utah.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2016, 05:12:22 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.

Weren't you on the "MO is a Toss-Up" bandwagon in 2013/2014? Surprised you're so pessimistic about it now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2016, 05:18:07 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2016, 05:12:22 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.

Weren't you on the "MO is a Toss-Up" bandwagon in 2013/2014? Surprised you're so pessimistic about it now.

Things are a tad more solid 2 weeks before the election as opposed to 2 years before the election.

Anyway, the people who insisted Missouri was solid R Arkansas 2.0 look much worse than I do. Every poll has the presidential race within single digits, and the Gov/Sen races are competitive.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2016, 05:37:08 PM »
Donald Trump would be somewhat lucky to get 180 EVs: the amount of EVs McCain got using the 2012 EV map and the 2008 results.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2016, 05:45:06 PM »


359
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2016, 05:47:06 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 05:18:07 PM
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2016, 05:12:22 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.

Weren't you on the "MO is a Toss-Up" bandwagon in 2013/2014? Surprised you're so pessimistic about it now.

Things are a tad more solid 2 weeks before the election as opposed to 2 years before the election.

Anyway, the people who insisted Missouri was solid R Arkansas 2.0 look much worse than I do. Every poll has the presidential race within single digits, and the Gov/Sen races are competitive.

I'm beyond excited to hear your pivoting and how you'll somehow find a way to trash WV when they elect Justice or at the very worst BARELY elect Cole.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 05:52:03 PM »
Quote from: RINO Tom on October 24, 2016, 05:47:06 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 05:18:07 PM
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2016, 05:12:22 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 03:27:33 PM
348 is my current prediction.  It could go to 359 if she snags AZ. I can't see her doing better than Obama 08.

Weren't you on the "MO is a Toss-Up" bandwagon in 2013/2014? Surprised you're so pessimistic about it now.

Things are a tad more solid 2 weeks before the election as opposed to 2 years before the election.

Anyway, the people who insisted Missouri was solid R Arkansas 2.0 look much worse than I do. Every poll has the presidential race within single digits, and the Gov/Sen races are competitive.

I'm beyond excited to hear your pivoting and how you'll somehow find a way to trash WV when they elect Justice or at the very worst BARELY elect Cole.

There will be no pivot since Cole is inevitable. And I was still right even if Cole wins by a single vote. I made no guarantee on the margin. Wink

If hell freezes over and Justice wins, then I will admit I was wrong. And maybe upgrade Manchin's chances of winning re-election from 0% to 5% or so.
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