CNN/ORC Clinton +5

[Eraserhead]

One more poll that shows Johnson and Stein's numbers crashing. Just like everyone predicted.

Johnson is down 4. Stein is unchanged.

Clinton and Trump are both up 2.

[dspNY]

The last CNN four way poll was Clinton 47, Trump 42 so she is actually in a better position now despite being up by the same 5 points because she is almost at 50

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's getting closer.

Mathematics is hard.

[IceSpear]

Really, America, not quite ready to wrap it up 100%? You still want to leave a slight chance of electing a fascist? Can't maybe move it toward something more like an 8 or 9 point margin?

That's just dandy.

45% of America would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D). The fantasies of a historic Democratic landslide are just that.

[Maxwell]

Did the best job in the debates? 61% Clinton, 29% Trump (ouch)
Cares about people like you? 49% Clinton, 44% Trump

Trump only leads whites by 13.

[BoAtlantis]

I like this part the most.

Q3. (ASKED OF CLINTON SUPPORTERS) Would that be more a vote to express support
for Hillary Clinton or more to express opposition to Donald Trump?
                         Oct. 20-23       Sept 28-Oct 2
Support for Clinton        66%       60%
Opposition to Trump      33%        39%

Q3a. (ASKED OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS) Would that be more a vote to express support
for Donald Trump or more to express opposition to Hillary Clinton?
                              Oct. 20-23   Sept 28-Oct 2
Support for Trump          60%        59%
Opposition to Clinton       38%        40%

Trump supporters don't show too much change.

Clinton supporters are voting more to support her now rather than grudgingly voting against Trump.

[Fusionmunster]

Also remember, Obama's lead in 2008 during the final week in October averaged between 5 and 6 points. Polling probably won't settle on a margin until the final week.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 6%
Stein 1%
Johnson 0%

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Midwest: Clinton +7
Northeast: Clinton +20
South: Trump +8
West: Clinton +11

urban: Clinton +38
suburban: Trump +1
rural: Trump +25

fav/unfav %:
Clinton 46/52% for -6%
Trump 41/57% for -16%

[psychprofessor]

This is still low balling her support with non-whites and overestimating Trump's. Right now it is 72/20. I'd be shocked if Hillary is under 80 with non whites and Trump above 20.

[Mike Thick]

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Can someone explain why any Republican would support Stein?

[IceSpear]

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Can someone explain why any Republican person would support Stein?

[BundouYMB]

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Can someone explain why any Republican would support Stein?

They support Putin but don't support molesting women.

[Mr. Morden]

Johnson has definitely declined from his peak, but his peak was something like 9% in the polling averages, and the polling averages now have him at about 6%.  So sure, that's a decline, but not the kind of "crash" that some were predicting six months ago when some were saying "Oh, his ceiling is going to be something like 2%."

Most polls still have him north of 5, yet when we get polls like this that have him below 5, everyone starts jumping on it like "See, I told you Johnson was going to crash and burn!"  In the threads on polls that still have him in high single digits, there isn't a corresponding chorus of "I guess Johnson isn't going to drop like people were saying."

[dspNY]

Full stats

86% of voters are not changing their minds
66% of Clinton voters are voting for Clinton, not against the opponent
60% of Trump voters are voting for Trump, not against the opponent
Clinton favorables: 46/52 (-6)
Bill Clinton favorables: 49/48 (+1)
Trump favorables: 41/57 (-16)
Melania favorables: 46/35 (+11)
Economy: 51/47 Trump
Terrorism: 50/48 Clinton
Immigration: 50/47 Clinton
Foreign policy: 59/38 Clinton
SCOTUS: 51/46 Clinton
Decisive leader: 48/46 Clinton
Temperament: 61/32 Clinton
CiC responsibility: 55/40 Clinton
Honesty: 43/42 Trump
A person you admire: 42/29 Clinton
Vision for the future: 49/42 Clinton
Won the debates: 61/29 Clinton
Will stand up for you: 49/44 Clinton
The emails: 64/35 think it is an issue
Trump sexual assault: 60/36 think it is an issue

Party ID: 31D/26R/43I (D+5)

Men: Trump +3
Women: Clinton +13
White: Trump +13
Nonwhite: Clinton +52
White college: Clinton +11
White non-college: Trump +29

Northeast: Clinton +20
Midwest: Clinton +7
South: Trump +8
West: Clinton +11

[IceSpear]

Johnson has definitely declined from his peak, but his peak was something like 9% in the polling averages, and the polling averages now have him at about 6%.  So sure, that's a decline, but not the kind of "crash" that some were predicting six months ago when some were saying "Oh, his ceiling is going to be something like 2%."

Most polls still have him north of 5, yet when we get polls like this that have him below 5, everyone starts jumping on it like "See, I told you Johnson was going to crash and burn!"  In the threads on polls that still have him in high single digits, there isn't a corresponding chorus of "I guess Johnson isn't going to drop like people were saying."

Third parties typically decline even more on election day itself than in the polling leading up to election day. Nader polled at 2.3% in 2008 and he got 0.6%. Barr polled at 1.5% and got 0.4%.

No doubt Johnson and Stein will improve on their 2012 performances, but at this point I'd be shocked if the former cracked 3% and the latter 1%.

[bilaps]

It's getting closer.

CNN has a hard pro-Trump bias in their polls because of Jeff Zucker, who is Trump's BFF from the Apprentice. A Clinton +5 from the network that hired Corey Lewandowski is a great result for her

lol

you clinton hacks are incredible

cnn is so pro clinton that anyone who watches like 5min realizes it, but not now they are going to manufacture a poll because of some random guy who is maybe trump's friend.

SAD!

[ApatheticAustrian]

no millenial-results cause the sample has been too small....

clinton + 18 under 45 years....trump + 1 between 45 and 65...and...clinton +1 over 65 years....

all those GREAT YUGE numbers somehow get to hillary +5. voodoo pollonomics.

[ApatheticAustrian]

but not now they are going to manufacture a poll because of some random guy who is maybe trump's friend.

instead of arguing about friendships or not, i would say that CNN isn't the poll gold standard AND the would do anything for ratings. ^^

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It's getting closer.

CNN has a hard pro-Trump bias in their polls because of Jeff Zucker, who is Trump's BFF from the Apprentice. A Clinton +5 from the network that hired Corey Lewandowski is a great result for her

lol

you clinton hacks are incredible

cnn is so pro clinton that anyone who watches like 5min realizes it, but not now they are going to manufacture a poll because of some random guy who is maybe trump's friend.

SAD!

CNN poll have shown a pro-Trump bias in the past. 538 has them with an ever-so-slight Rep bias based on 2014, but this year, they've shown Trump up 2 in September and similar results throughout the race. Their LV screen is to blame for this, I think, but it's a datum nonetheless.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's getting closer.

CNN has a hard pro-Trump bias in their polls because of Jeff Zucker, who is Trump's BFF from the Apprentice. A Clinton +5 from the network that hired Corey Lewandowski is a great result for her

lol

you clinton hacks are incredible

cnn is so pro clinton that anyone who watches like 5min realizes it, but not now they are going to manufacture a poll because of some random guy who is maybe trump's friend.

SAD!

When someone gets attacked by both sides, it's usually a sign that they're somewhere in the middle.  Having said that, I highly doubt CNN or any reputable pollster would manufacture results to fit a narrative.  (Less reputable pollsters are a different story.)  CNN seems to have had a slight R lean this cycle, likely due to their likely voter screen, but it's much less than some other pollsters.

EDIT: 538 has CNN listed as R+0.1.

[bilaps]

Even if it has a Trump lean and we will know that after election, not now, it is NOT because of some random guy who is working on a poll.

[TC 25]

Clinton can win the popular vote by 3, even 4 and lose the election if Trump pulls out narrow wins in OH, FL, NC and PA

[Gass3268]

Clinton can win the popular vote by 3, even 4 and lose the election if Trump pulls out narrow wins in OH, FL, NC and PA

No, it would have to probably within a percentage point.

[IceSpear]

Clinton can win the popular vote by 3, even 4 and lose the election if Trump pulls out narrow wins in OH, FL, NC and PA

Trump can also win even while losing all those states if he wins California! So many paths to victory!

[Mr. Morden]

Johnson has definitely declined from his peak, but his peak was something like 9% in the polling averages, and the polling averages now have him at about 6%.  So sure, that's a decline, but not the kind of "crash" that some were predicting six months ago when some were saying "Oh, his ceiling is going to be something like 2%."

Most polls still have him north of 5, yet when we get polls like this that have him below 5, everyone starts jumping on it like "See, I told you Johnson was going to crash and burn!"  In the threads on polls that still have him in high single digits, there isn't a corresponding chorus of "I guess Johnson isn't going to drop like people were saying."

Third parties typically decline even more on election day itself than in the polling leading up to election day. Nader polled at 2.3% in 2008 and he got 0.6%. Barr polled at 1.5% and got 0.4%.

Neither of them were actually included in many polls that year.  Should be noted that Perot '92, Perot '96, and Nader '00 all did about as well on election day as they were polling a few weeks before the election.  I guess what I'd say is that polls are really bad at distinguishing between a 3rd party candidate whose true support is 0.5% and a 3rd party candidate whose true support is 5%.  It's not clear to me that we can figure out which of those categories Johnson is in in advance of the election.