Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Oryxslayer]

You got a newspaper/livestream link for us to watch, or are there none up yet?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any newspaper with a nationwide map?  Perhaps I have been spoiled by all the European elections recently. Servel doesn't appear to have one, and I have been checking some of the papers sites, though I haven't seen one, yet.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?

Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while.

[Oryxslayer]

Piñera gains .01% as we jump to 61%. The  vote is just too stable!

[Oryxslayer]

In the last update, Guillier passed the One Million vote mark.

Piñera passed it a while ago, and Sanchez is less then 100K off. 

[Oryxslayer]

Any idea why Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo's count is so far behind the nation?

[Oryxslayer]

Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier.

On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago.

[Oryxslayer]

It's getting close... was always going to be close.

Fixed it for you. TBH, these polls are bad for Guilliar, since as I stated earlier, the electorate in first round was probably 54-56% left wing voters. If he ends up with 46-48% of the vote, that means quite a few voters are staying home.

[Oryxslayer]

Any predictions on Final results/margins? My take during the first round was that if everyone that voted in the first round turned out to vote, then Guilliar would easily win. However, such a scenario was at the time hard to see happening due to the divisions in the left. The question is, has Guilliar perfectly unified the left vote, or will there be significant dropoff?

[Oryxslayer]

China
Piñera: 101 (73%)
Guillier: 37 (27%)


Vote from abroad consolidated
Guillier: NZ, Aus, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Korea (empate)
Piñera: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philipines, UAE, India, Egypt, South Africa, Jordania, Korea (empate)
Piñera 40.6% (712 votos)
Guillier 59,4% (1040 votos)

Source: https://twitter.com/wuinters/status/942433840412446720

These result do show that the left is losing votes from the first round, but will it b enough for Piñera to win...

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to be contrary to the other views expressed here and say Piñera pulls it out. Thanks to the divisions in the left during the first round, not enough BF voters will qant to turn up and vote NM.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls now start to close, you can check official results here:

http://www.servelelecciones.cl

If there are international counts already why does this link show zero votes for both candidates ?

That link is to the total vote. If you click the international link you see the int vote. The national vote tab however shows zero, because the count is at zero.

[Oryxslayer]

That link is behind the main page - here:

http://www.tvn.cl/

I love how I understand just basic Spanish, yet I can still that the YouTube live comments on that video are Trash

Also: is there any reason for which counts the stations show - both this time and during the first round? Are they traditionally good bellwethers, or are they just where the actions is at the time?

[Oryxslayer]

We Have Chilean votes!

SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE   146   51,41%   
ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   138   48,59%   

[Oryxslayer]

Total Votes: from 693 counts

 SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 42.966   50,86%   
 ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   41.516   49,14%   

Votes from Chile: 612 Counts

 SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 40.345   53,38%   
 ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   35.233   46,62%   

If I can recall from the first round, the margins stayed the mainly the same throughout the count. if this holds true - Piñera wins.

[Oryxslayer]

Current Radio Bio Bio projection:

Piñera: 54,70%
Guillier: 45,30%

That isn't even close. If this ends up being the margin, how much did Left turnout drop? Perhaps the NM-BF split truly did put off BF voters from Guillier...

[Oryxslayer]

Some quick backhand math says the vote might have dropped by 300K between the two rounds - though not all counts have the same number of voters so this is VERY ROUGH.

[Oryxslayer]

47% of counts.

SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE   1.674.238   54,29%   
ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   1.409.547   45,71%   

This is over.

[Oryxslayer]

Tvn just showed of the vote regionally - Piñera is largely doing better then one would expect in the north. The map seems to largely map the traditional polarization - extreme south and north-central for Left, Far north and South for Right - Except Piñera is barely winning the traditional Left-wing Mining states in the north. 

[Oryxslayer]

TVN just called for Piñera.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round.  So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave  Piñera the victory.  It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters.    And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory.  I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier.

Yeah, my backhand calculations were way off - not all counts created equal and all that. There are only two explanations. One you offered above, that the centrists and some marginal leftists decided cast Piñera votes. This is obviously part of the story.

However, I think the main reason was that in the first round Piñera didn't really mobilize his base effectively.  Right-wing voters didn't turn up in the numbers they needed in the first round since it was obvious Piñera was going to win. When the results came in, and the election became close, this base became scared - and they turned out. So there was probably a few left-wing voters dropping off, however their votes are hidden because Piñera mobilized the right and outpreformed his first round turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

This is so Alabama special Senate election

Pinera is doomed

(a little later)

PINERA LANDSLIDE!

Nah, it was more like Guilliar started with the better hand, so people expected him to do better. The moment votes came in from Chile, everyone knew it was over.

[Oryxslayer]

Another loss for the left in Latin America. Bodes well for Brazil, which is more conservative than Chile.

Right wing candidates (including the ones who pretend to be) could break 60%.

I know this is very cliche, however it shouldn't be ignored that the fact that the pink tide is regressing definitely played a role here. The failure of Venezuela after Chavez's departure and the state's turn to authoritarianism has provided a spectre that looms across the continent. In this election, and many others that saw the right assume governmental control, the ads warn of their county 'becoming another Venezuela.'

[Oryxslayer]

Election map - I highly recommend opening it in a new tab if you want to see all the details. The takeaway I think is the decline of the Left vote in their traditional Northern Strongholds, and the growth of said Left Vote in the Santiago Metro Area.