MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12

[Tender Branson]

47% Trump
35% Clinton

http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-results-minnesota-8th-congressional-district-race-rick-nolan-stewart-mills/4299294

Obama won this district by 6% in 2012.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

No wonder Minnesota is a toss up on 538..Damn...This state hasn't want republican in 3 decades.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No wonder Minnesota is a toss up on 538..Damn...This state hasn't want republican in 3 decades.

Ah ha, you've seen the other CD polls? I'm not the least bit concerned about MN.

[Ebsy]

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

[Tender Branson]

I don't think that MN will ever vote for Trump, but there has been some crazy polling out of that state recently.

It seems the cities and suburbs are voting strongly for Hillary, while the rural areas are strongly trending to Trump.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

[StatesPoll]

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8

[Lief 🐋]

lol no

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

this is what a junk poll looks like folks.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8

You need to keep adjusting.  2016 cannot be compared to 2014.  But it can be compared more accurately to 2012.

[Dr. RI, Trustbuster]

This is the exact type of district you'd expect to swing toward Trump so I'm not sure why it's so hard to believe that he's up/competitive there.

[Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi]

Definitely seems like the kind of district that should trend Republican based on its demographics, but hard to believe it would swing that hard.

[StatesPoll]

This is the exact type of district you'd expect to swing toward Trump so I'm not sure why it's so hard to believe that he's up/competitive there.

Minnesota's 8th congressional district
Distribution  63% Rural, 37% Urban
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_8th_congressional_district

[Ebowed]

Clinton will win here.

[Horus]

I can see Trump winning this district. Clinton will make up for it by doing better in the twin cities suburbs.

[136or142]

I'm not quite sure why, but Congressional polling is generally quite poor.  

This is from an article on the U.S House race part of the poll:

Two years ago at about this same stage, our poll showed Mills with an eight-point margin. Three weeks later in lost to Nolan by 1.4%. Schier says that was likely the result of the Democratic Party having a far superior get-out-the-vote operation. "I think the lead in the polls evaporated two years ago because the Democrats had a ground game that far outstripped the Republican ground game in that district," Schier says.

When the polls turn out to be wrong, a superior get-out-the-vote operation is a standard excuse of the pollster.

I think that a 9.4% difference between a late poll and the actual result being explained by a superior get-out-the-vote effort is ridiculous.

http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/

I'm not claiming this poll is wrong just providing evidence of how poor polling by Congressional District whether for the House race or the Presidential race frequently is.

[Southern Senator Spark]

Trump will win MN at this rate.

[Brittain33]

Trump will win MN at this rate.

Not with MN-2 and MN-3 swinging as hard or harder in the opposite direction, I don't think.

[Fusionmunster]

SurveyUSA isnt  good at polling smaller races, one just has to look at Kentucky.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Trump will win MN at this rate.

I know you're grasping right now, or you're a troll... either way, no.

[Reapsow]

Great new poll out of Minnesota! Media can't hide the fact we started a movement in Minnesota 8! #MAGA

[emotional hardcore]

Trump will win MN at this rate.

LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

[Arch]

If Trump is not winning OH, Trump is not winning MI. If Trump is not winning MI, Trump is not winning WI. If Trump is not winning WI, Trump is not winning MN.

He's not even at the first step of this.

[mencken]

Trump will win MN at this rate.

LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

[Gass3268]

This same poll has Nolan losing by 8 in 2014.