CBS/YouGov: Clinton +3 (FL), Trump +3 (TX) (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +3 (FL), Trump +3 (TX) (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +3 (FL), Trump +3 (TX)  (Read 5302 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: October 23, 2016, 09:37:13 AM »

link:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-tracker-hillary-clinton-leads-florida-donald-trump-narrowly-leads-texas/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 09:40:01 AM »



Also, when Republicans were asked how they would vote in a hypothetical re-do of the presidential primary, 35% said they'd vote for Trump while 25% said they'd vote for Rubio.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 09:46:07 AM »

Full #s with Johnson and Stein included:

Florida
Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

Texas
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 09:54:20 AM »

Florida:
men: Trump +2
women: Clinton +6
age 18-29: Clinton +15
age 30-44: Clinton +10
age 45-64: tie
age 65+: Trump +7
whites: Trump +15
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +19
Dems: Clinton +86
GOP: Trump +74
Indies: Trump +11

Texas:
men: Trump +6
women: Trump +1
age 18-29: Clinton +21
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-64: Trump +14
age 65+: Trump +22
whites: Trump +37
blacks: Clinton +78
Hispanics: Clinton +30
Dems: Clinton +89
GOP: Trump +77
Indies: Trump +19

Johnson is still strong with the kiddies.  In Texas, he's at 17% among voters under 30 and 0% among voters over 65.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 01:28:18 PM »

But more importantly, what does this mean? If Trump wants to falsely claim on Nov 8th that his landslide defeat was rigged, and the vast majority of republicans support him, what happens?

I actually think much of that 72% isn't necessarily "real", and even some of it that's real would evaporate after Nov. 8th, though it depends on how other conservative figures react.

With questions like this, I think it's useful to read Julian Sanchez's take from years ago on "symbolic beliefs":

http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/08/03/symbolic-belief/

For poll questions like this, many folks are saying that they believe "X" if "X" is something that's useful to believe for their "side".  Maybe they've even fooled themselves into thinking that they think it, but they don't really think it deep down.

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So I'm not sure if the proportion who say they believe such things really believe it at all.  And part of the reason why they say they believe it is because the election is still in the balance, there's a lot at stake, and Trump is the GOP standardbearer.  But once the election is over, then he's not the standardbearer anymore, and things will change.  Though much depends on how other Republicans react, perhaps especially conservative media outlets like Fox News and Limbaugh and Hannity, but also the elected Republican leadership.  If all of those figures follow Trump into the "rigged" abyss, then there's trouble.  But if they don't, and instead turn on Trump for having lost a winnable election, much of the "rigged" talk among ordinary voters will evaporate, IMHO.
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