ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Seriously?]

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.

Of course the final polls are accurate. After the media tried to manipulate public opinion first. The early voting data does not support any D+9 or D+12 narrative or whatever nonsense this poll started with.

[Seriously?]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!

Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

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http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/

[Seriously?]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!

Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

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http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/

Do we need to go through this with you every four years?

Nope, but I'd like to know why ABC/WaPost is weighing for Party ID when all I hear from you folks is that pollsters shouldn't. So please give me an explanation on that.

[Seriously?]

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.

Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.

[Seriously?]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

My issue with the ABC poll is the Party ID reweigh, but I believe this poll is live call (w/Spanish), so I don't know how you can dicker on quality by the later metric. I believe on this site, the live call w/Spanish is considered the highest "quality."

The reweigh by Party ID greatly assists Hillary!

[Seriously?]

Junk poll.