ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[dspNY]

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

[dspNY]

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker

[dspNY]

Other numbers:

2-way race: Clinton 53, Trump 41
Trump's handling of sexual assault: 24/69 disapprove
Clinton's private email server: 35/59 disapprove
Who won the 3rd debate: 52/29 Clinton
The vote is rigged: 39/59 disapprove
Trump's refusal to concede if he loses: 29/65 disapprove

[dspNY]

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012 and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.

Nate Silver compared the blue, red and swing states from 2012 and said Clinton was doing about 2 points better in the swing states, even in the blue states and NINE points better in the red states than 2012

[dspNY]

I'm believing the Clinton double digit leads now because the Hill put out an article quoting Conway saying Trump wants another debate. No candidate who is winning the election would ask for another debate, especially after getting humiliated in the first three

[dspNY]

The most interesting demographic crosstab is this one:

Non-college white women: Trump +9

This is where I thought the collapse in Trump's numbers would occur after the first debate and his general maltreatment of women. He was winning this demo by a lot more before the first debate

[dspNY]

Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.

That means their likely voter model is terrible

[dspNY]

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

In every state where they polled voters who have already voted, Clinton is winning by larger margins than Obama did 4 years ago

[dspNY]

The head to head matchup is unchanged at 49-46 Clinton. Looking at early vote numbers this measure looks to be more accurate since Johnson's and Stein's percentages in the early vote are way below what they are in public polls

[dspNY]

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.

How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad

[dspNY]

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.

How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad

Numbers?

You had 14% of Republicans saying he should drop out of the race and another 9% say their congressman/congresswoman should disavow him

[dspNY]

I think the demographic breakdown is a misread of the electorate. Think African-American turnout will be 11% of the electorate but Hispanic will be 13% (look at the early vote surge) and others will be 3-4%

[dspNY]

I actually think the non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic data is more interesting...

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch  1m1 minute ago
Clinton leading with Jews 73%-18% via ABC/Post poll aggregate of 4,613 interviews since Oct 20 (to look at small sample size groups)

Palm Beach County swings to Clinton (heavy Jewish vote in that county)

[dspNY]

Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

Nice!!!

[dspNY]

Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5