ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Maxwell]

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

[Maxwell]

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.

I was focusing on their fantasy 25% of Hispanics for Trump, but yes also enthusiasm.

[Maxwell]

Texas is the reason why Clinton's national leads seem inflated - she's pretty close there even as other swing states aren't budging as far.

[Maxwell]

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

"only down 3 points in Florida" is literally devastating for Republicans. Obama didn't even win Florida by 3 points in 2008.

[Maxwell]

Labor force participation is low because the people who are leaving the workforce are - you guessed it - old people retiring. We have more old people than ever.

[Maxwell]

+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

can't read michigan polls? sad!

[Maxwell]

Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.

[Maxwell]

I think this has gotten about as close as it's going to get - Clinton at 49% in the two-way, 46% in the three-way. We'll see tomorrow, though.