ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 37873 times)
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,290
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« on: October 24, 2016, 01:27:48 AM »

Why all the arguing?

The polls that currently have Trump leading the race are totally inconsistent with the state polling. And so is this poll that has Clinton up by 12.

Surely, the sober conclusion is that Clinton is up by about 6 points, give or take a point or two. Maybe with a bit more upside than downside. A Clinton lead by about 4-9 points sounds right to me at this moment and seems consistent with most of the state polling.
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BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,290
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 09:09:53 AM »

Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.
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