ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 38755 times)
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« on: October 24, 2016, 12:51:53 AM »
« edited: October 24, 2016, 01:07:45 AM by Ronnie »


Then please enlighten me as to where these mythical votes are, because just saying "there is" is not a valid argument. There is no way Clinton can be up +12 when the Republican is doing average in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois and California (Last poll I saw for there) and have close races in the Swing states. The facts, and math in this case, do no lie.

Well, for one thing, he's incredibly weak in Texas, a state Romney won by 16 points.  Also, not many polls have been conducted in the rockies and plains, but it seems likely that he'll underperform the numbers one would expect from a generic R in them.  We already know that he's going to do far worse than Mitt Romney did in Utah and Idaho.
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 08:19:48 AM »

No horserace numbers today, but they did release some extra crosstabs:

Affirmative support:
Clinton 56%
Trump 41%

Strong Enthusiasm:
Clinton 52%
Trump 49%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 08:31:08 PM »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 10:28:49 PM »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

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So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 09:37:09 AM »

Not all tracking polls are created equal.  If Clinton is leading by 7 in NC, then a 12 point national lead is certainly possible.
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 10:03:02 AM »

Ugh, and this is all before Comey's announcement.  The poll numbers next week might look ugly.
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