ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Brittain33]

Is this comparable to last week's Clinton +4 poll or is the methodology different?

[Brittain33]

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.

[Brittain33]

Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.

[Brittain33]

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

[Brittain33]

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.