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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 26083 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« on: October 24, 2016, 02:04:13 am »

So many things...

No evidence that Trump is doing better than Romney in New York.

Trump is not close in Pennsylvania and is likely losing by nearly double digits. Same with Michigan.

Losing 10% in Texas is going to hurt your national popular vote. So is getting blown out in California by a historic margin, as seems to be the case.

Trump is doing worse than Romney in a number of mid-sized states (Maryland, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona...) by about 5 points.  Romney lost in 2012 by 4 points. 4+5 is very close to 12, especially with margin of error.

McMullin could take an additional 300 to 400k votes from Trump in Utah and Idaho, compared to Romney.

All this adds up.

If you look at the RCP average for polls conducted in October (or the only 1-2 polls conducted in October if there's not enough for an average) you get this swing map from 2012 -> 2016:



>30% shade: 1-5 points
>50% shade: 5-10 points
>90% shade: 10+ points

So yeah, it's a pretty clear picture of Trump underperforming Romney overall, even if you assume most of the gray states swing to him.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 01:32:46 pm »

LOL, what a junky poll. I could maybe buy a collapse of this magnitude if it was post-emails, but for no reason? Completely ridiculous. They should be embarrassed.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 01:34:33 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 02:09:56 pm »

Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Move along, nothing to see here. All is well. Hillary will still win Texas.



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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 02:59:16 am »

So the thing that has dogged Hillary the entire campaign and kept Trump afloat through his constant campaign ending gaffes, controversies, etc. was the fact that the American public has the attention span of a goldfish and is incapable of caring about any event, no matter how big, for more than a week. For once the stupidity of Americans has worked in Hillary's favor. LOL
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