ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Fusionmunster]

Omg

[Fusionmunster]

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo aligns with NBC, Bloomberg and CBS. TIPP aligns with Rasmussen and the L.A Times tracker. Who doesn't know what their doing?

[Fusionmunster]

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker

I dont think its a daily tracker though. Its a weekly tracker like SurveyMonkey and YouGov.

[Fusionmunster]

From the article:

_{This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.}

Oh lord, why?

[Fusionmunster]

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't. Hence why tracking polls suck. Its best to poll over a set period of time and average the numbers. Some days will be R-friendly, some D-friendly, thats why you average and get a topline.

[Fusionmunster]

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.

[Fusionmunster]

RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.

[Fusionmunster]

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.

Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.

Yep, thats abit racist.

[Fusionmunster]

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.

[Fusionmunster]

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.

USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.

[Fusionmunster]

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.

Obama's average didnt have to deal with 3 daily tracking polls either.

[Fusionmunster]

Its too soon for any email effect to show so this is all ABC.

[Fusionmunster]

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

[Fusionmunster]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

[Fusionmunster]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

[Fusionmunster]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Again, 538 is not gospel.

[Fusionmunster]

USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

Hence, why her support has dropped. They fall out of the likely voter screen, doesnt mean they arent voting.