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News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 26715 times)
VirginiŠ
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« on: October 23, 2016, 08:06:16 AM »
« edited: November 07, 2016, 08:49:50 AM by Virginia »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Likely Voters:

ClintonSad 50
Trump: 38
Johnson: 5
Stein: 2


WomenSad 55 - 35
College educated white womenSad 62 - 30
MenSad 44 - 41


Sample of 874 likely voters, October 20 - 22nd

-

Update (Nov2 - 5)Sad Clinton+4 (4-way)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 08:07:46 AM »

Omg
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 08:08:08 AM »

I don't think she is up by this much, but her hitting 50 in the four way is devastating for Trump. 
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Iosif
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 08:08:16 AM »

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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 08:08:33 AM »



This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too
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OkThen
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 08:09:26 AM »

Wow, Trump only +4 among whites?
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mark_twain
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 08:10:34 AM »

Great poll!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2016, 08:12:08 AM »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 08:12:55 AM »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

Like in 2008, TIPP will probably herd to the correct margin at the end.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2016, 08:13:50 AM »

Please, let this be true.

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2016, 08:14:17 AM »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo aligns with NBC, Bloomberg and CBS. TIPP aligns with Rasmussen and the L.A Times tracker. Who doesn't know what their doing?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2016, 08:14:44 AM »

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2016, 08:16:39 AM »

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2016, 08:17:54 AM »

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker

I dont think its a daily tracker though. Its a weekly tracker like SurveyMonkey and YouGov.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2016, 08:20:12 AM »

From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABCís tracking survey later this week.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2016, 08:21:03 AM »

Is this comparable to last week's Clinton +4 poll or is the methodology different?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2016, 08:21:20 AM »

From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABCís tracking survey later this week.

Oh lord, why?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2016, 08:21:53 AM »

Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2016, 08:22:25 AM »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.
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afleitch
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2016, 08:22:49 AM »

On the 538 swingy with white college split, Clinton flips NC, GA , AZ and NE2 with a 49.7-38.7 vote share. With the white gender split those states flip as does IN, SC, MO, MT, MS with a 51.2-37.2 vote share.

And this is with generous non white subsamples in the poll.
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dspNY
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2016, 08:23:03 AM »

Other numbers:

2-way race: Clinton 53, Trump 41
Trump's handling of sexual assault: 24/69 disapprove
Clinton's private email server: 35/59 disapprove
Who won the 3rd debate: 52/29 Clinton
The vote is rigged: 39/59 disapprove
Trump's refusal to concede if he loses: 29/65 disapprove
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2016, 08:25:15 AM »

From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABCís tracking survey later this week.

Oh lord, why?

They had one in 2012 and were the most accurate pollster Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2016, 08:27:09 AM »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2016, 08:35:18 AM »

A tracking poll for the rest of us.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2016, 08:37:15 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 08:58:00 AM by BoAtlantis »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...

1) TIPP is a red flag for me because they don't share their methodology in detail.
2) Comparing 2008 and 2012 is vastly different because cell phone use has skyrocketed by 2012.
3) Also, if Trump was up 2 nationally, he'd be doing better in swing state polls.
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