ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.

In what way did this poll indicate it?

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf

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Second point on page two.

Ok, thanks. I read wrong pdf

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf

Clinton 46% (-1)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  46% (+/-)

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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They did it 3 days ago or so

Are you sure? Both Nates (538 and Upshot) would complain about it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.

No, they didn't change the model.

It seems like someone missunderstood (or "missunderstood" )their note about ~"voters' preferences didn't change, their intentions did". But the model itself is unchanged.

One may argue, if the model is good, but when it showed C+12 (bc of low enthusiasm among Reps), it was OK...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Have they been tracking this too?

Yes

Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.

They didn't change the model.

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.

Link? They usually don't report this.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-1)
Johnson 3% (-1)
Stein      2% (+0)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

[Erich Maria Remarque]

At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.

Cause there weren't so much polling from WI-CO-NV-PA kinds of states lately. If the tightening is that dramatic how this particular poll suggest, we will see Trump friendly states poll (as we saw in September, when state polls followed nationall polls).  It also would be nice to get some new nationall polls from Selzer/Fox/NBC/Marist/QU/Monmouth etc to see if the tightening is real

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls

Lol, noone said. But being an outlier, doesn't matter that you can't get any usefull information out of the poll. In fact, you can.

Very simpified you can say that:

If you get +12, it means that you at worst at +7.
If you get +1,   it means that you at worst at -4.

So the poll sort of says, that there was at least 3% points shift. Very simplified.

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!!

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed.

No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

2-way:
Clinton 49 (+1)
Trump 47  (--)

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.

Literally every tracking poll? Like what?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Dude, you f**king kidding me. Trump shoots himself in the foot on weekly basis, has LITERALLY no classic GOTV, and he's still inside a MOE

[Erich Maria Remarque]

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Intresting. So Trump now has worse entusiasm margin than when he was behind 12%. It means, that entusiasm wasn't a main reason, why the race has tightened.

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Comey-gate was a bust.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%

I hate to say it, but Nate Cohn agrees with you.

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794343177553592324

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah, the race bounces back

Still inside Brexit margin

Putin/Comey should go to breaking news again...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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Yeah for sure haha.

It is not strange at all. Few support Trump because of economy

SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF TRACKING!

CLINTON +12

BEAUTIFUL!

Haha, poor Trump!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wait when did they call the new people for today's poll

When they saw a lot of Trump friendly s**t polls today

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Thanks, Ozymandias.

It is really intresting. IDK, why other didn't look into this

The data is still little bit noise. Jews 2% = ~80, but still quite intresting!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5

+3 rather RCP shows the average at +2.2 (not including LATimes poll)

Yep.
538 Clinton +3%
Upshot Clinton +2.6%