It's hard to imagine Clinton bagging less than 40% of the vote in LA....
People forget that LA actually swung towards Obama between '08 and '12, one of the few parts of the country other than WestTex that went against the national GE PVI grain.
I also have a pet theory about Trump significantly under-performing in the "oil patch" region (TX/LA/OK) that has been hit hard by the collapse of oil prices and Trump claiming "we should seize the Oil Fields of Iraq", which would further depress domestic American oil production with even further job losses for workers in the industry.
Lt's face it, this isn't a state with a strong tradition of 3rd party voting (Post George Wallace era), Whites in LA vote more like Mississippi or Alabama than Arkansas or Kentucky, and African American voters overwhelmingly vote Democratic, unlike some Northern States in the Midwest for example.
Bernie did not do spectacularly well in LA, so we're not talking about a ton of disaffected Dem primary holdouts going Stein or Johnson, although Bernie likely did well with Millennials, even in a heavily Black Primary electorate.
I call sketch on this poll, and think it will be closer to Trump +10-15, depending upon how the Catholic Cajuns swing, not to mention if some evangelical protestant types upstate in the Piney Woods decide to show up and vote for a top of ticket candidate who has recently taken a big hit on "values" in the post "Gropergate" era.
I hope you're right as Louisiana would be significant long term opening for Democrats, but I really think what's happening in Texas is sui generis. The rest of the South (excluding Virginia, which can no longer be considered Southern for political purposes) seems to be falling back toward 2008-12 norms in recent weeks. Even in NC, Clinton can't quite break out of the MOE. I think a bunch of the undecided conservative Evangelicals actually came home for Trump in the last month.
What's driving the situation in Texas is less clear. Could it all be explained by a massive increase in Latino turnout? Or perhaps Kasich type inner suburb R's are a bigger force in Texas than I realized?
White Trash likely has much better insights on LA politics than myself...
What I will say is that the LA/TX connection is extremely strong, as someone who lived in Houston in the early/Mid 2010s...
I had many friends/co-workers/ colleagues from when I lived in Houston, including people that worked the offshore rigs, the oil refineries in Baytown, as well as Exxon-Mobile corporate offices in the City as well as the Woodlands, as both direct hires and subcontractors.
There is a HUGE overlap with Houston and LA in the post-Katrina era, and even before as a result of the overlap of the Petro sector.
Domestic Katrina refugees are coming home from Houston, and other parts of Texas in very recent years.
Much of LA is rural/ small-town, so limited options for Clinton in suburban areas, other than Metro New Orleans....
Still. I will perform a prediction that Trump will win LA by <10%..... Canjun Queen vote comes g=home.
