Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.
That's true, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. 
Trump's going to win LA by a large margin.
Well, LA still has a substantial rural conservadem presence, and Trump is beating PVI just about everywhere that has a lot of them. He's the closest thing they've seen to the state level populist Dems they love in a generation at the national level. Throw in even a slight falloff in black turnout and it's easy for me to see how Clinton could lag Obama there.
Trump is nowhere near a Louisiana populist.
