IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2

[Dr. Arch]

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

according to the their homepage it was the most accurate for the last 3 elections but they have never been so different from the general average.

let's wait for the new weekend polls.

There's also the fact that this is now a daily tracking poll, something they didn't do before.

[Dr. Arch]

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

[Dr. Arch]

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

No, she is not under performing in NC. Dem numbers are slightly up and Rep numbers are extremely down.

[Dr. Arch]

slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789789737078972416

There you go

[Dr. Arch]

Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.

They increase over time.

[Dr. Arch]

is there possibility that the "white democrats" are voting trump and haven't changed their registration.

Highly unlikely. The opposite is actually much much more likely.

[Dr. Arch]

Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

What we can extrapolate, Hillary is likely leading about +3-+5 post Comey crap. Polls' LV screens are failing massively, which is giving us the range of variation.

The only thing we know is that she is leading and that she has done amazingly well with the 20 million early voters who have already cast their ballots. Outside of that, it's a guessing game at this point. Go and vote!