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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 11473 times)
jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: November 01, 2016, 06:19:09 am »

The fact that Clinton only leads Trump 43-40 in the Northeast is surprising.  If true this is very good news for Trump in PA.   Trump losing West 49-39 is also "good" news for Trump as that means Clinton has a lot of wasted votes.  Clinton leading Trump 48-33 among Hispanics is surprising.  If we adjust that to 58-23 then Clinton should be leading Trump by 3 but not 1 which I suspect is the true state of the race.  On the flip side 7% of the Black vote are for Other/Not sure makes me feel that most of them are hidden Trump voters.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 07:56:38 am »

King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.

I did the math with today's numbers and I came up with an implied 78% White sample.  If we go with a 72% White sample instead you get a 4% lead for Clinton.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:50:52 am »



Still tied

Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   4
Stein       2

At the decimal level Clinton did seems to gain from yesterday
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 05:53:19 am »

The implied White share of the electorate seems to be 77%.  Clinton's gains seems to be related to a slow reshifting of the sample toward a more correct racial breakdown of the electorate.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:01:55 am »

Still tied



Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   5
Stein       2

A bit of a good news for Trump.  It seems Trump lost a bit of ground to Johnson but still remain only 0.5% behind Clinton.
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 07:50:40 am »

Fortunately there are more candidates in the race Wink

Well, it does give us some clues on how last minute tactical voting might go if there are going to be any.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2016, 06:52:02 am »



Trump lead becomes 2

Trump       43
Clinton      41
Johnson      6
Stein          2
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2016, 07:01:02 am »

It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,373
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2016, 08:36:28 pm »

as wrong as anyone else.....only the other direction.

Yeah.  Looks like the closest  will be Rasmussen (Clinton +2) or McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +1). 
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