IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2

[jaichind]

The fact that Clinton only leads Trump 43-40 in the Northeast is surprising.  If true this is very good news for Trump in PA.   Trump losing West 49-39 is also "good" news for Trump as that means Clinton has a lot of wasted votes.  Clinton leading Trump 48-33 among Hispanics is surprising.  If we adjust that to 58-23 then Clinton should be leading Trump by 3 but not 1 which I suspect is the true state of the race.  On the flip side 7% of the Black vote are for Other/Not sure makes me feel that most of them are hidden Trump voters.

[jaichind]

King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.

I did the math with today's numbers and I came up with an implied 78% White sample.  If we go with a 72% White sample instead you get a 4% lead for Clinton.

[jaichind]

Still tied

Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   4
Stein       2

At the decimal level Clinton did seems to gain from yesterday

[jaichind]

The implied White share of the electorate seems to be 77%.  Clinton's gains seems to be related to a slow reshifting of the sample toward a more correct racial breakdown of the electorate.

[jaichind]

Still tied



Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   5
Stein       2

A bit of a good news for Trump.  It seems Trump lost a bit of ground to Johnson but still remain only 0.5% behind Clinton.

[jaichind]

She leads 46-43 in the head-to-head.

Fortunately there are more candidates in the race

Well, it does give us some clues on how last minute tactical voting might go if there are going to be any.

[jaichind]

Trump lead becomes 2

Trump       43
Clinton      41
Johnson      6
Stein          2

[jaichind]

It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact

[jaichind]

as wrong as anyone else.....only the other direction.

Yeah.  Looks like the closest  will be Rasmussen (Clinton +2) or McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +1).