MO Emerson: Kander Blunt Tied!
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  MO Emerson: Kander Blunt Tied!
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Author Topic: MO Emerson: Kander Blunt Tied!  (Read 3009 times)
jimmie the omicron inhaler
jamespol
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« on: October 19, 2016, 02:36:42 PM »

Emerson is not the best poll, but here is the link.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_98fe8b3559f64960a573ecad7dc22ec9.pdf

I do think Kander has a slight advantage in this race. Kander is underperforming internals I have seen in this poll, and Trump is overperforming internals. Trump will win MO but with a little less then 50%.
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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 03:38:48 PM »

Does Emerson have a house effect, or is it just an unreliable pollster with no clear lean?
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 03:39:17 PM »

WAKE UP MISSOURI! WAKE UP! Kander is a complete rubber stamp for Clinton!!!
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jimmie the omicron inhaler
jamespol
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 03:41:31 PM »

No, Missouri needs two conservative Democratic Senators Wulfric. We must have the blue dog Democrats back, but in a less socially conservative way. Even without gerrymandering, the House of Representatives is tough for Democrats, due to natural packing. Plus there are more Republican states then Democratic states, so the Senate we are also at a disadvantage.

Democrats need some blue dogs..
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 03:42:18 PM »

Does Emerson have a house effect, or is it just an unreliable pollster with no clear lean?

Can probably add 2-5 points to the Democrats due to it being landline only.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 03:45:50 PM »

No, Missouri needs two conservative Democratic Senators Wulfric. We must have the blue dog Democrats back, but in a less socially conservative way. Even without gerrymandering, the House of Representatives is tough for Democrats, due to natural packing. Plus there are more Republican states then Democratic states, so the Senate we are also at a disadvantage.

Democrats need some blue dogs..

When Kander votes with Clinton 99% of the time, don't say I didn't warn you.
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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 03:49:26 PM »

Does Emerson have a house effect, or is it just an unreliable pollster with no clear lean?

Can probably add 2-5 points to the Democrats due to it being landline only.

Good!

PA is still worrying, though. We really need to see reputable polls there.
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 04:36:31 PM »

538 calls this Kander+2.

Of course, the possibility that Kander's success is due to old-fashioned Democrats who like Trump could complicate things.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 05:33:17 PM »

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-19

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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DavidB.
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 05:47:27 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 06:09:25 PM by DavidB. »

This means Kander overperforms Hillary by 8 in this poll. That's not inconceivable, and it's probably even more because of the landlines.

Blunt better make a good ad together with Trump, letting all of Missouri know Trump and Blunt support each other for 1000%. And he better do it right now if he wants to win this. He needs to tie himself to Trump as much as possible. This seat is in real danger.

No, Missouri needs two conservative Democratic Senators Wulfric.
Repeating it doesn't make it true. Blue dog days are over. Kander is close to being your average liberal Democrat.
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jimmie the omicron inhaler
jamespol
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 06:12:54 PM »

I disagree DavidB.

Blue Dog days are not over, they will just be adjusted. Instead of being socially conservative, they will just be more pragmatic. It is important that Democrats have a "blue dog" wing, as even without gerrymandering, Democrats still have a lot of vote sinks. Plus, the US Senate is sort of structured against Democrats.

Also, DavidB, if you look at Hillary and Trump favorability ratings, both candidates are unpopular in Missouri. Trump just leads because it is a GOP State.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 06:54:08 PM »

Dear gosh please no.
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 07:27:45 PM »

What issues is Kander conservative on?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 07:34:31 PM »

I disagree DavidB.

Blue Dog days are not over, they will just be adjusted. Instead of being socially conservative, they will just be more pragmatic. It is important that Democrats have a "blue dog" wing, as even without gerrymandering, Democrats still have a lot of vote sinks. Plus, the US Senate is sort of structured against Democrats.

Also, DavidB, if you look at Hillary and Trump favorability ratings, both candidates are unpopular in Missouri. Trump just leads because it is a GOP State.

I agree.... we need more Blue Dog Dems from Red States to show that unlike the Republicans, we are a "big tent" party. I wouldn't mind more Liberal and Moderate Republicans from Northern States, like former Oregon Senator Mark Hatfield, so long as they actually practice their principles instead of being worried about being primaried to a point where they have basically roadblocked just about every  everything that Obama Administration was elected and the Republicans took control of the Senate.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 07:37:03 PM »

What issues is Kander conservative on?

Opposes Iran Deal, potentially opposes an Assault Weapons ban. On literally everything else he is in literally perfect agreement with HRC.
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 09:27:16 PM »

What issues is Kander conservative on?

Opposes Iran Deal, potentially opposes an Assault Weapons ban. On literally everything else he is in literally perfect agreement with HRC.

Overall sounds pretty good for a potential Missouri Senator.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 09:40:06 PM »

What issues is Kander conservative on?

Opposes Iran Deal, potentially opposes an Assault Weapons ban. On literally everything else he is in literally perfect agreement with HRC.

Overall sounds pretty good for a potential Missouri Senator.

Well, for a leftist, he's great. For a centrist, he's terrible.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 10:11:40 PM »

What issues is Kander conservative on?

Opposes Iran Deal, potentially opposes an Assault Weapons ban. On literally everything else he is in literally perfect agreement with HRC.

Overall sounds pretty good for a potential Missouri Senator.

Well, for a leftist, he's great. For a centrist, he's terrible.

Kind of my point.

Blunt is no moderate either, though.
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Joshua
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2016, 02:54:51 PM »

Blunt is substantially more partisan than what Kander would be. I don't understand how this is even a debatable point.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2016, 03:09:48 PM »

No one in this thread said Blunt is a moderate. He very clearly isn't. However, James keeps telling us that Kander would be a Blue Dog, which is simply untrue.

I would also disagree with Joshua's assertion that Blunt would be "substantially more partisan". At this point, newly elected Democrats are almost always generic liberals (and more left-wing than ever) and newly elected Republicans are almost always generic conservatives (and more right-wing than ever). Kander is close to being a generic liberal. His only differing stance is on the Iran deal, which probably won't be all that important of a political issue under Clinton's presidency. Kander comes off as a somewhat conservative Democrat, certainly more so than McCaskill, but he really isn't.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2016, 06:12:47 PM »

I totally agree with David here. Also, I see you are predicting a Rubio win now? Smiley
After seeing some other poll in which Rubio is up 10 points with Latinos I had to change it. Still a tossup though, and if another Trump scandal breaks, Murphy may well end up winning.
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