MO-Google Consumer Surveys: Kander +7
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  MO-Google Consumer Surveys: Kander +7
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Author Topic: MO-Google Consumer Surveys: Kander +7  (Read 5431 times)
MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
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« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2017, 02:47:11 PM »

Blunt beating Kander was the most surprising call on election night IMO. I thought Kander would win by 3-6 points in the end because of the anti-establishment/incumbent/Washington mood and the fact that Blunt run such a disastrous campaign.

Pretty sure Blunt didn't gain 10 points in 3 weeks.

Was there ever even a time when Blunt gained anything? lol
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Skye
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2017, 09:06:17 AM »

Blunt beating Kander was the most surprising call on election night IMO. I thought Kander would win by 3-6 points in the end because of the anti-establishment/incumbent/Washington mood and the fact that Blunt run such a disastrous campaign.

Pretty sure Blunt didn't gain 10 points in 3 weeks.

Was there ever even a time when Blunt gained anything? lol

Pretty sure it helped that Trump won the state by almost 20 points.
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MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2017, 11:01:23 AM »

Pretty sure it helped that Trump won the state by almost 20 points.

Another way to look at it is that Trump motivated hordes of anti-estalishment voters and Blue Dog Democrats who voted for him but also for Kander who would have otherwise stayed home. I honestly think that Blunt would have won by 6-8 points if someone like Kasich had been the GOP nominee. But yeah, his campaign was so terrible that I think he'll probably be gone in six years if Trump is reelected. Ugh.
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2017, 11:05:53 AM »

Google Consumer Surveys was pretty terrible across the board, wasn't it?
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Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2017, 12:06:29 PM »

Pretty sure it helped that Trump won the state by almost 20 points.

Another way to look at it is that Trump motivated hordes of anti-estalishment voters and Blue Dog Democrats who voted for him but also for Kander who would have otherwise stayed home. I honestly think that Blunt would have won by 6-8 points if someone like Kasich had been the GOP nominee. But yeah, his campaign was so terrible that I think he'll probably be gone in six years if Trump is reelected. Ugh.

This assumes that Missouri will even be winnable for a democrat in 6 years. Unless of course, you think someone is going to primary him.
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« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2017, 01:33:14 PM »

Pretty sure it helped that Trump won the state by almost 20 points.

Another way to look at it is that Trump motivated hordes of anti-estalishment voters and Blue Dog Democrats who voted for him but also for Kander who would have otherwise stayed home. I honestly think that Blunt would have won by 6-8 points if someone like Kasich had been the GOP nominee. But yeah, his campaign was so terrible that I think he'll probably be gone in six years if Trump is reelected. Ugh.

-Not the case. Look at the swing map:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=29&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3
The biggest anti-Blunt swings from 2010 were in places that trended most against Trump. Blunt would not have won had anybody other than Trump been on the ballot. Kander did not come close due to "Blue Dog Democrats", but the college-educated.
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jimmie
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« Reply #31 on: February 13, 2017, 02:19:45 PM »

The next statewide Democratic victory would probably depend on the Kansas City area counties.  It is note worthy that Kander did not carry Platte County in 2012 but he was able to do it in 2016.

My general feelings of Missouri are pretty much this:

I do not expect a Democratic presidential candidate to carry it in my lifetime. Though the back of my head tells me it will close a bit.

Democrats will be able to win statewide again. Possibly as soon as 2018.

On the topic: I do not trust Internet Polling right now. It has not evolved to be accurate. But the only way it will evolve is if it keeps being done. Techniques and marketing would have to change of course.
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SATW
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« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2017, 02:34:43 PM »

can we not bump old poll threads?
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jimmie
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« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2017, 02:41:36 PM »

Haha yes.

Tbh bumping old poll threads can be a bullying tactic.
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MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
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« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2017, 03:04:29 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 03:06:55 PM by MT Treasurer »

Pretty sure it helped that Trump won the state by almost 20 points.

Another way to look at it is that Trump motivated hordes of anti-estalishment voters and Blue Dog Democrats who voted for him but also for Kander who would have otherwise stayed home. I honestly think that Blunt would have won by 6-8 points if someone like Kasich had been the GOP nominee. But yeah, his campaign was so terrible that I think he'll probably be gone in six years if Trump is reelected. Ugh.

-Not the case. Look at the swing map:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=29&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3
The biggest anti-Blunt swings from 2010 were in places that trended most against Trump. Blunt would not have won had anybody other than Trump been on the ballot. Kander did not come close due to "Blue Dog Democrats", but the college-educated.

I'm not sure what your point is? Look at that swing towards Kander in the rural areas and then compare it with the presidential map. Yes, I was also surprised that Blunt did so poorly in the suburbs, but there's a lot of WWC and minorities there. His terrible showing in the rural areas was what made the race so close.

As long as Blunt is the incumbent, I don't think this seat will ever be completely safe for the GOP. Blunt and McCaskill are both doing exactly the opposite of what a Senator needs to do in order to hold their seat.

This assumes that Missouri will even be winnable for a democrat in 6 years. Unless of course, you think someone is going to primary him.

Just like McCaskill, I think the seat might be much safer for Republicans if Blunt decided to retire or lost in a primary.
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