Following amdcpus' lead, I conducted a one-question poll of South Dakota using Google Consumer Surveys. First the results, then caveats about the methodology:
cinyc/Google Consumer Surveys South Dakota PollTrump 50%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 14%
Castle 3%
October 15-17; 341 (probably) Registered Voters. This was weighted for the percentage of South Dakota registered voters by age and sex in 2012 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In
Google's weighted results of Internet Users (i.e. weighted for the universe of Internet viewers, which skews younger than RVs), results were similar:
Trump 49%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 15%
Castle 3%
About methodology:
In this one-question survey, I asked "If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" The answers were only those candidates on the ballot - Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party, randomized in position. I added an option for "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always at the end) to try to filter out out-of-staters and those who were not registered. I did not include an option for undecided or other because I couldn't follow up with the undecideds to push leaners. The reported results are for those who didn't choose "Not registered". 506 total voters were surveyed.
The links above go to my weighting spreadsheet (thanks to amdcpus for his help), and the Google results.