If they cannot win NV, republicans need 4 of IN, PA, NH, MO, and NC to keep the senate, assuming they do not pull off an upset in WI. Though I do question how much a 50-50 "Manchin Majority" would be worth it to dems (which would happen if R's get 3 of those 5 seats).
If they can claw back in NV or WI, it looks like they can do it, but they do need to make that happen somehow, It looks pretty likely that one of PA, IN, and NH goes R, which is probably enough if they have NV or WI, the problem is getting two of those to go R, which is what is needed if they don't have NV or WI. Ultimately I think MO/NC stay R narrowly.
