GA - zPolitics/Clout Research - Trump +3
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Author Topic: GA - zPolitics/Clout Research - Trump +3  (Read 2980 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: October 19, 2016, 11:44:29 AM »
« edited: October 19, 2016, 11:48:38 AM by GeorgiaModerate »

http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-shows-many-georgians-unphased-by-trumps-lewd-audio/

Trump: 46
Clinton: 43
Johnson: 2

Oct 15-18, 627 LV

EDIT: Per 538, Clout Research is a C- pollster with an R+1.7 bias.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 11:46:10 AM »

Undecideds will break 90% R and give Trump a comfortable victory here.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 11:47:37 AM »

AZ is looking like the promised one to flip, but GA might surprise us.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 11:48:14 AM »

What is Z politics?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 11:48:40 AM »

The race is still tight here.
Anything can happen with Clinton showing huge national leads by various pollsters.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 11:49:48 AM »

Undecideds will break 90% R and give Trump a comfortable victory here.

In an ordinary year, I would agree with you, but not this year in Georgia.  There's a huge lack of enthusiasm for Trump among the suburban voters who are usually solidly Republican.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 11:50:53 AM »

http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-shows-many-georgians-unphased-by-trumps-lewd-audio/

Trump: 46
Clinton: 43
Johnson: 2

Oct 15-18, 627 LV

EDIT: Per 538, Clout Research is a C- pollster with an R+1.7 bias.

Factor the bias in and Georgia is a tossup. This pollster has 9 polls in the 538 database and called 3 correctly, a terrible percentage
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 11:51:11 AM »

Wowee what junk
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 11:51:26 AM »

Georgia is looking like this year Indiana
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 11:52:19 AM »

"Wenzel, a very pro-R pollster, has Trump up just 3 in Georgia. That tells me the state is damn near a tossup, or maybe even that HRC is up"
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/788784355577622528
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 11:52:26 AM »

I think this is Wenzel's outfit..very pro R.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 11:52:58 AM »


Presumably something horrible.  

The headline is: GEORGIANS FAVOR TRUMP: Exclusive: Poll shows many Georgians unphased by Trump’s lewd audio

And the rest of the headlines are standard Breitbart-type dreck.  

"MODERATOR HAS TIES TO DEMOCRAT IN HD80 DEBATE"

"HILLARY IS THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF IN THE TRUE WAR ON WOMEN"

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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 11:53:43 AM »

She's probably not going to win it (muh low elasticity) but I hope it's close!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 11:55:19 AM »

She's probably not going to win it (muh low elasticity) but I hope it's close!

I don't know if she'll win GA (I've been skeptical but am starting to think it may happen), but it's definitely going to be close.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 11:57:40 AM »

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/voter_registration_statistics.
The white % seems really low at 55%.
I got 57 of active voters as white.

Hispanics at 9% are too high. They're 2.2% in the registration.
Asians are 5% in this poll vs 1.7% in the registration.

There are 1.1% "other" voters and 7.9% "unknown" voters I guess could account for some of this, but bottom line, not enough whites in this poll I think.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 12:02:14 PM »

Kyle Kondik on Twitter pointed out: Trump is performing better with women than men in this poll. That SCREAMS bulls**t.
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Discount $15 Crudité Darthpi
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 12:14:24 PM »

Ah, Wenzel Strategies, the pollster Republicans go to when even Rasmussen and Gravis are having trouble coming up with the numbers they want.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 12:14:53 PM »

Yeah Clinton is probably up in Georgia is Wenzel is showing things close!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 12:23:16 PM »

Ah, Wenzel Strategies, the pollster Republicans go to when even Rasmussen and Gravis are having trouble coming up with the numbers they want.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
They have a C- and called 33% of races right
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 12:40:31 PM »

Ah, Wenzel Strategies, the pollster Republicans go to when even Rasmussen and Gravis are having trouble coming up with the numbers they want.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
They have a C- and called 33% of races right

538 adjusted this poll to a tie
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 12:53:19 PM »

"Wenzel, a very pro-R pollster, has Trump up just 3 in Georgia. That tells me the state is damn near a tossup, or maybe even that HRC is up"
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/788784355577622528
Wentzel was #NeverTrump.

In either event Clout is junkier than junk.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 01:47:29 PM »

It's so fascinating to me why Atlas has been so stubborn in acknowledging GA as a toss-up this cycle. If it takes until Election Day it takes until Election Day, I guess.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2016, 01:52:27 PM »

This is going to edge to Clinton with a late push...
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heatcharger
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2016, 02:13:14 PM »

Isn't this the same pollster that showed Trump leading in Oregon a while ago? RIP Trump.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2016, 06:58:41 PM »

New Poll: Georgia President by Clout Research on 2016-10-17

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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