AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:49:06 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 4393 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 16, 2016, 06:09:20 PM »
« edited: October 16, 2016, 08:00:03 PM by heatcharger »

Link.

Trump - 37% (-1)
Clinton - 36% (+6)
Johnson - 7% (-4)
Stein - 3% (+1)

Conducted Oct 11-13. 500 LV.

I don't believe this is an internal poll from any specific campaign, so in my opinion, this deserves its own thread.
Logged
voter1993
Rookie
**
Posts: 68
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 06:10:58 PM »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 06:11:14 PM »

Thats alot of undecideds.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 06:14:34 PM »

Wow, nothing like a SUNDAY NIGHT SHOCK POLL to start the week!
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 06:17:15 PM »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.

i do too but wow even Trump +6 is incredibly weak.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 06:18:02 PM »

So Clinton is picking up some Johnson people, I guess.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 06:18:46 PM »

This is an internal poll for the Alaska Democratic party.  Midnight Sun had nothing to do with conducting it.  You probably should remove the reference to Midnight Sun from the title.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 06:22:15 PM »

This is an internal poll for the Alaska Democratic party.  Midnight Sun had nothing to do with conducting it.  You probably should remove the reference to Midnight Sun from the title.

It should probably go to the Internal Poll megathread.
Logged
voter1993
Rookie
**
Posts: 68
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 06:24:03 PM »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.

i do too but wow even Trump +6 is incredibly weak.

It is trump we won't see 2012 margins in republican states this time around, he will win these states but not by big margins like mitt romney.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 06:25:19 PM »

Internal and AK polls in general suck, but still, wow.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 06:26:25 PM »

Even with my 5 point rule, Trump +6 in Alaska is very weak
Logged
rafta_rafta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 926


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 06:32:20 PM »

This is an internal poll, already being discussed in that thread
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 06:35:07 PM »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.
Logged
RJEvans
MasterRegal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 06:44:15 PM »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2016, 06:48:22 PM »

I called it awhile back, that Trump is extremely vulnerable in Alaska, but even if one uses a +5 rule for internals, my "surprising prediction" from a few hours ago, and various comments over the past few weeks, this is definitely a state in play for a ton of reasons.....

Pacific Northwest will be solid Democrat come November.... even "way up North to Alaska... North of Russia's own" in the words of the great classic country/folk artist Johnny Horton back in the '50s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt0NEESrUA
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2016, 06:57:24 PM »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Alaska Native population is probably either trending Democratic and/or is voting at higher turnout rates. I was there last summer and from what I understand the native population tends to have pretty strong concerns about climate change.

The borough maps for the elections in Alaska on Wikipedia seem to indicate the areas with high Alaska Native populations seem to be trending Democratic the most strongly.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2016, 06:58:56 PM »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Not an expert on Alaska politics, but could it be an increase in Native American population? (which trends Democratic). Remember, Alaska was only 64% non-Hispanic white according to the last census
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 07:18:06 PM »

Remember, the race will be declared at 11 PM ET, and will essentially be over many hours before that. Alaska's polls close at 12 PM ET. The idea that demoralized Trump voters won't bother voting is very intriguing.
Logged
mark_twain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 427
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2016, 07:33:56 PM »


Getting closer in this state for Clinton.

Let's see how AK looks after the last debate!
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2016, 07:34:56 PM »

Boos for using the awful term "statistical tie".
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2016, 07:40:31 PM »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Alaska is a state that is extremely ornery when it comes to the politics of the lower 48.

This is a state, that is one of most dovish in the country when it came to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, where there where two Senators that called BS on the authorization for war in Vietnam (The other was Oregon).

It is a state, that similarly to Texas views itself as being virtually an independent country, but was and is essentially the final frontier of Western expansionism, as part of the foundation myth of Alaskan exceptionalism.

Alaska is also a state heavily dependent upon natural resource extraction with Timber and Fishing, being major sources of employment that recognizes the value of "renewable natural resources" to the point where so see an odd alliance between environmentalists and workers in the industry on total agreement regarding issues like sustainability.

Exxon-Valdez also crystallized this in a dramatic manner where we all saw back in the late '80s how one single oil spill did not only destroy sensitive ecological areas, but also destroyed the livelihoods of small fishermen dependent upon the Salmon runs and other harvests for their livelihoods.

Fast forward into the 1990s and 2000s, the politics of oil extraction shifts the statewide dynamics, and it amounts to a real paycheck into the pockets of every Alaskan, even citizens going to college/university out of state (Like one of my friends back in the late '90s).

Obama was the first Democrat in many years, that both ran as opposed to an extremely unpopular war in Iraq (Way up North in Alaska), while also striking the right balance between jobs/environment in a resource dependent state.

In general Alaskans don't like "Billionaires" from New York telling them what to do, and additionally as I have stated on other threads previously, making insane foreign policy platform claims regarding "Seizing Iraqi Oil" doesn't play so well when all of the residents of Alaska get a check from the oil industry as part of a negotiated state sovereign deal gig.

Clinton is likely seen as more favorable to the American domestic petro industry than Obama, considering her holdout on Keystone back in the primaries, and Trump seems like an a** even in roughneck oil country, fishing/cannery jobs, etc...



Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2016, 07:46:08 PM »

Boos for using the awful term "statistical tie".

^

Burn it in a fire!
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2016, 07:48:58 PM »

Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2016, 08:50:24 PM »

Wow, nothing like a SUNDAY NIGHT SHOCK POLL to start the week!
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2016, 08:57:26 PM »

does anyone know how the people of alaska in general feel about russia?

Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 14 queries.