MT- Mason Dixon: Bullock up 2

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I had a feeling that this race was going to tighten significantly. Regardless of what the #analysts on Atlas say, Gianforte is actually not a super-unelectable candidate and has done nothing to alienate the Republican base in the state. Bullock was never going to win by double digits, but my guess is he wins by 2-4 points on election day. Somewhere between Tilt and Leans D, but definitely not "Likely" or "Safe" D. A Gianforte upset wouldn't surprise me at all.

[MT Treasurer]

What I want to know is why is his approval rating 40+ points in the positive when he can barely hold on in this poll.

He is not as popular as that Morning Consult poll suggests, especially not among Republicans. Most voters (including myself, for the most part) just don't mind him. Gianforte is a basically a Trumpish Republican without the insanity and incompetence of Trump, and I wouldn't say that he is a terrible candidate or campaigner (if he were, he would be down 10 points or more)