MT-Mason Dixon: Trump+10

[Tender Branson]

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http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/trump-leads-in-montana-but-voters-aren-t-that-fond/article_1160276a-1827-51f5-890f-76fa6f4566f4.html

[Tender Branson]

This poll suggests Hillary's lead is around 5% nationally.

[Tender Branson]

This poll suggests Hillary's lead is around 5% nationally.

Actually, no it doesn't. 1). Because trying to guess a national lead from a Montana poll is certifiably INSANE and 2). because even if you wanted to do that, Romney won Montana by 14 when Obama won by 4 nationally, so logic would dictate Clinton is up by 8 now.

Go to math class again.

MT is a small state and McCain won it by 2, while Obama won by 7 nationally, a difference of 9.

Romney won by 14 while Obama won by 4, a difference of 18.

So, it's likely that MT will be anywhere between 9 and 18 points more Republican than the nation.

A 5% Hillary lead looks likely with a 10% lead for Trump there.

[Tender Branson]

This poll suggests Hillary's lead is around 5% nationally.

Actually, no it doesn't. 1). Because trying to guess a national lead from a Montana poll is certifiably INSANE and 2). because even if you wanted to do that, Romney won Montana by 14 when Obama won by 4 nationally, so logic would dictate Clinton is up by 8 now.

Go to math class again.

MT is a small state and McCain won it by 2, while Obama won by 7 nationally, a difference of 9.

Romney won by 14 while Obama won by 4, a difference of 18.

So, it's likely that MT will be anywhere between 9 and 18 points more Republican than the nation.

A 5% Hillary lead looks likely with a 10% lead for Trump there.

Whatever bizarre logic you need to delude yourself. Clinton's double digit win is just three weeks away.

Mkay ... and you call me deluded.