FL-Gravis: Rubio +8

[MT Treasurer]

44% Rubio (R, inc.)
36% Murphy (D)

Same poll has Clinton up 4 in FL.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/15/exclusive-breitbartgravis-poll-clinton-up-4-points-over-trump-in-florida/

[DavidB.]

lol Gravis. Rubio is currently winning this race, but he's not overperforming Trump by 12. Also a high number of undecideds.

[Xing]

Yeah, barring a massive polling error, this race is over. Sickening that Flawless Beautiful Marco used a tragedy for political gain (he's actually quite terrible on LGBTQ rights) and yet is getting a free pass. FL Republican politicians are some of the worst, along with those from KY, NC, and WI.

[heatcharger]

Yeah, barring a massive polling error, this race is over. Sickening that Flawless Beautiful Marco used a tragedy for political gain (he's actually quite terrible on LGBTQ rights) and yet is getting a free pass. FL Republican politicians are some of the worst, along with those from KY, NC, and WI.

It's Gravis, so I wouldn't make any conclusions purely based off of this one poll. True, Rubio is favored, but I think his chances to win are about the same as Evan Bayh's if you ask me. It's not unthinkable that the state's fundamentals could turn on him.

[Green Line]

I don't want to get my hopes up, only to be crushed.  The people of Florida have already proven once this year that they're not very bright.

[Xing]

Yeah, barring a massive polling error, this race is over. Sickening that Flawless Beautiful Marco used a tragedy for political gain (he's actually quite terrible on LGBTQ rights) and yet is getting a free pass. FL Republican politicians are some of the worst, along with those from KY, NC, and WI.

It's Gravis, so I wouldn't make any conclusions purely based off of this one poll. True, Rubio is favored, but I think his chances to win are about the same as Evan Bayh's if you ask me. It's not unthinkable that the state's fundamentals could turn on him.

Most polls have him up by at least 4, though, Democrats are cutting spending here, and polls underestimating Latino turnout wouldn't help Murphy that way it would help Hillary. Murphy had many ways to attack Flawless Beautiful Marco , but failed to do so effectively, and got outspent. Time to focus on IN, MO, NH, NC, and PA.

The people of Florida have already proven once this year that they're not very bright.

That should give you a lot of confidence that Flawless Beautiful Marco will win.

[DavidB.]

I don't want to get my hopes up, only to be crushed.  The people of Florida have already proven once this year that they're not very bright.

Yeah, Rubio's going to lose in the end.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only way for Rubio to lose would be if the polls got the Hispanic vote completely wrong and Murphy ends up carrying it. I really don't see that happening, but I'd like to see a Latino Decision poll here just to be sure.

[Xing]

Can either of you explain why you think Rubio is going to lose? Democrats have pretty much given up on this race. Unless there's a Democratic tsunami in the Senate, causing polls to be off by more than they were in 2012 or 2014, or undecideds break heavily for Murphy, it's hard to see how this seat flips, by this point.

[DavidB.]

1. Undecideds will break for Murphy, who is not the candidate whose disapproval rating is over 40%.
2. Hispanics will end up voting for Murphy instead of Rubio by a higher margin, largely because of Trump.
3. Trump will implode even more because of new scandals, dragging Rubio down with him. See also: Joe Heck in Nevada.

Rubio is probably up by something like 4 points right now, which is nothing a new Trump scandal can't "solve". The main reason Dems pulled out of this race is because there are so many tossups where it's cheaper to invest than in Florida, and Rubio should be grateful for that. This race is a tossup and I fully expect it to go to Murphy in the end.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1. Undecideds will break for Murphy, who is not the candidate whose disapproval rating is over 40%.
2. Hispanics will end up voting for Murphy instead of Rubio by a higher margin, largely because of Trump.
3. Trump will implode even more because of new scandals, dragging Rubio down with him. See also: Joe Heck in Nevada.

Rubio is probably up by something like 4 points right now, which is nothing a new Trump scandal can't "solve". The main reason Dems pulled out of this race is because there are so many tossups where it's cheaper to invest than in Florida, and Rubio should be grateful for that. This race is a tossup and I fully expect it to go to Murphy in the end.

It's extremely rare for a candidate to overcome a polling deficit around 5 points. If you think that's going to happen, you should have more solid reasons than that.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

David, I'm really not sure if you're trolling or not.

[Green Line]

David is just being realistic.  Florida is going to be a big Hillary win, and Rubio hasnt made any attempt to distance himself from Trump.  If theres a wave coming to Florida, theres no way Rubio survives it.

[DavidB.]

It's extremely rare for a candidate to overcome a polling deficit around 5 points. If you think that's going to happen, you should have more solid reasons than that.

I don't think Murphy's polling deficit will be around 5 points in the week before this election. If that's the case, I'll say it's lean R. Until then I think this remains a tossup.

David, I'm really not sure if you're trolling or not.

Absolutely not, but I admit I'm preparing myself for the worst and won't allow myself to get any hopes in order to avoid being too disappointed when FBM<3 loses. That said, I don't care much for the other races and I expect a D win in all races that are truly competitive (except for MO, but even that is a very real possibility) so I'm not being inconsistent, I just expect a D wave.

David is just being realistic.  Florida is going to be a big Hillary win, and Rubio hasnt made any attempt to distance himself from Trump.  If theres a wave coming to Florida, theres no way Rubio survives it.

I actually think his balancing act is working just fine, at least up to now. He's not being too hostile and not being too friendly to Trump, which enables him to keep aboard both deplorable voters and Hispanic voters. I think he couldn't do a better job at that. It's just that I think it won't be enough when Trump loses by a landslide. Rubio is not going to overperform Trump by more than 6. So I definitely agree with the rest of your post.

[Xing]

1. Undecideds will break for Murphy, who is not the candidate whose disapproval rating is over 40%.
2. Hispanics will end up voting for Murphy instead of Rubio by a higher margin, largely because of Trump.
3. Trump will implode even more because of new scandals, dragging Rubio down with him. See also: Joe Heck in Nevada.

Rubio is probably up by something like 4 points right now, which is nothing a new Trump scandal can't "solve". The main reason Dems pulled out of this race is because there are so many tossups where it's cheaper to invest than in Florida, and Rubio should be grateful for that. This race is a tossup and I fully expect it to go to Murphy in the end.

I don't think Rubio is quite controversial or unpopular enough for undecideds to break heavily enough for Murphy, though. If polls of Latinos are to be believed, Rubio isn't only winning among Latinos overall, he's tied with Murphy among Puerto Ricans, who are normally quite Democratic-leaning.

As for Heck tanking, we're already seeing polling evidence of that, and Heck unendorsed Trump. He's probably slipping because some Trump voters are refusing to support him. Rubio doesn't have to worry about that. Perhaps if Trump loses FL by at least 7-8%, Rubio will be in trouble, but it hard to see a state as large as FL swinging Democratic by that much.

I'm resigned to reality at this point, which is that Rubio is overwhelmingly favored, and hoping for Murphy to win would just be setting myself up for disappointment. This late in the game, I'd rate this Likely R.