538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups

[Xing]

There does seem to be a very real chance that the LA run-off will decide control of the Senate. I hope that's not the case, but it could be if Democrats can only manage IL, WI, and PA.

[°Leprechaun]

Senate control is pretty much a 50-50 chance for each party according to 538.
538 model disagrees with electoral-vote model. 538: NH D with a razor thin edge. NV D MO R.
Electoral-vote is just the opposite with those three. I will go with the following 49D-51R:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Senate/Maps/Nov05.html

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Senate Now-cast is exactly 50-50 right now

[Mr. Smith]

51-49 R now....

[Rocky Rockefeller]

51-49 R now....

I cant beleve how badly democrats blew this election, they couldnt have been given better odds.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

51-49 R now....

I cant beleve how badly democrats blew this election, they couldnt have been given better odds.

Congratulations on officially becoming a Democrat; here's your Chicken Little merit badge.

[Figueira]

51-49 R now....

I cant beleve how badly democrats blew this election, they couldnt have been given better odds.

It isn't over yet, but yeah the Democrats really messed up in Ohio and Florida.

[DavidB.]

This is really nonsense. Everybody knows tossups go overwhelmingly in one direction. I have become more optimistic about the GOP's chances to avoid a big loss (54-46, 53-47), though even that is still very much possible, but they won't keep the Senate, they really won't. Not in a presidential election that is going to be won by the Democrats by more than 5 points.

75%-80% chance that Dems win the Senate.

[Blair]

I remember all the articles saying how great the Democrat recruits were (Strickland was cited as the best ) and how confident they were with Bayh jumping back in.

First rule of running campaigns like this- you'll be a complete hypocrite

[windjammer]

Well, I really believe the republicans are going to have the trifecta soon in the future , in 2020 or 2024.
If they hold the senate, it means the supreme court isn't going to survive on long term.
I don't think the institutions will even be able to survive.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is really nonsense. Everybody knows tossups go overwhelmingly in one direction. I have become more optimistic about the GOP's chances to avoid a big loss (54-46, 53-47), though even that is still very much possible, but they won't keep the Senate, they really won't. Not in a presidential election that is going to be won by the Democrats by more than 5 points.

75%-80% chance that Dems win the Senate.

In 1988 Dems lost the presidential election by 8 points yet they still won the senate

[Mr. Smith]

This is really nonsense. Everybody knows tossups go overwhelmingly in one direction. I have become more optimistic about the GOP's chances to avoid a big loss (54-46, 53-47), though even that is still very much possible, but they won't keep the Senate, they really won't. Not in a presidential election that is going to be won by the Democrats by more than 5 points.

75%-80% chance that Dems win the Senate.

In 1988 Dems lost the presidential election by 8 points yet they still won the senate

That was back before the GOP '94 swipe, therefore rendered moot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sabato's final prediction is  +4 Dem in the Senate and net +13 Dem in the House.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

Wrong thread.