Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4

[pbrower2a]

Texas is tricky to poll due to its regional divides, large population, ethnic diversity, and lack of analogues in the behavior of other states. With the possible exception of Alaska, few states have so large a margin of error (4% for most states)... and a 4% lead for Trump in Texas is within the margin of error.

Although it is unlikely, Texas may be within reach of Hillary Clinton should Texas' educated white people vote like educated white people in other states and should Mexican-Americans vote like Mexican-Americans in California, Colorado, or New Mexico. This state has the largest number of potential Romney-to-Clinton voters (educated white voters and relatively-conservative Mexican-Americans). I expect the largest absolute swing from R to D in the Presidential election and one of the largest proportional swings from R to D in the Presidential election. Will that be enough to swing Texas? Only in a complete collapse of Donald Trump, which will make this Presidential election uninteresting.       

[pbrower2a]

If Texas is within 2% on election day, then we can talk about it being a realistic target for dems in 2020. If not, accept its relative closeness as a consequence of a literal fascist being the republican nominee, expect it to revert back to 57-43 R (TPV) in 2020, and check back in 15 years. Under no circumstance do I actually see TX voting for Clinton.

No, Hillary Clinton has to win Texas for it to be a legitimate chance for her or her Democratic successor (reasons of health?) to win it in 2020. The state still leans clearly R, and will revert to "safe R" in 2020 with some Republican other than Trump as the Presidential nominee.    Obviously she will much more likely win the Presidency without Texas than with it. She has to win about 400 other electoral votes to have a real chance to win Texas.

It is not Hillary Clinton who would win Texas; it would be Donald Trump who loses it.  Donald Trump has offended enough sensibilities that he could lose Texas.

Texas can go Democratic, but such suggests that America is undergoing an era of Democratic dominance as with the Second New deal. 

[pbrower2a]

If Donald Trump has to defend Texas  -- it;s over.