Is the rust belt/midwest a pipe dream for republicans?

[BlueSwan]

Assuming somewhat similar platforms and voting patterns, the GOP seem about to lose states like Virginia, Nevada and Colorado for good, while states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and a bit longer term even South Carolina and Texas are in play for democrats.

Supposedly this loss could be somewhat offset by republicans running the table in the midwest/rustbelt states outside of Illinois. Iowa is trending hard right this cycle, for instance. But could the GOP really win all of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in a tight election? Or are we just seeing Donald Trump currently maxing out the "stupid white people" vote? Will it be possible for future GOP candidates to appeal to business republicans and the Alex Jones segment at the same time?

Could we have a swing state map that looks like this in 2028:

[BuckeyeNut]

Yes, we could. Midwest is definitely not a pipe dream. It's getting older and whiter, and less educated than the nation as a whole. The sunbelt is getting younger and less white.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not a pipe dream but a bad strategy. This would be a losing map after 2030 census.

[Blackacre]

Assuming somewhat similar platforms and voting patterns, the GOP seem about to lose states like Virginia, Nevada and Colorado for good, while states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and a bit longer term even South Carolina and Texas are in play for democrats.

Supposedly this loss could be somewhat offset by republicans running the table in the midwest/rustbelt states outside of Illinois. Iowa is trending hard right this cycle, for instance. But could the GOP really win all of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in a tight election? Or are we just seeing Donald Trump currently maxing out the "stupid white people" vote? Will it be possible for future GOP candidates to appeal to business republicans and the Alex Jones segment at the same time?

Could we have a swing state map that looks like this in 2028:

The map here is 238 Dem/151 Rep. Texas takes the Dems over the finish line; this isnt the best math.

Maybe same thing but NC becomes swing instead of Dem?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Assuming somewhat similar platforms and voting patterns, the GOP seem about to lose states like Virginia, Nevada and Colorado for good, while states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and a bit longer term even South Carolina and Texas are in play for democrats.

Supposedly this loss could be somewhat offset by republicans running the table in the midwest/rustbelt states outside of Illinois. Iowa is trending hard right this cycle, for instance. But could the GOP really win all of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in a tight election? Or are we just seeing Donald Trump currently maxing out the "stupid white people" vote? Will it be possible for future GOP candidates to appeal to business republicans and the Alex Jones segment at the same time?

Could we have a swing state map that looks like this in 2028:

The map here is 238 Dem/151 Rep. Texas takes the Dems over the finish line; this isnt the best math.

Maybe same thing but NC becomes swing instead of Dem?

How about this (I always try to make far-out swing state maps fairly even in the EC)?

[Devils30]

Minnesota may be hard with this strategy b/c it has one of the higher education rates.

[Blackacre]

Minnesota may be hard with this strategy b/c it has one of the higher education rates.

I can imagine a scenario where Wisconsin is heavily Republican, Michigan is a Republican-leaning swing state, and Minnesota a true swing or Dem-leaning swing state

[Bismarck]

Minnesota may be hard with this strategy b/c it has one of the higher education rates.

Until this election higher educated whites were more republican than less educated whites in Minnesota. Romney won college whites in Minnesota but lost non  college whites.

[AGA]

No, but that does not mean that the Republicans should give up holding the South Atlantic, Arizona, and Texas.