How will the political landscape be in 2024?
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  How will the political landscape be in 2024?
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Author Topic: How will the political landscape be in 2024?  (Read 43463 times)
Derek
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« Reply #100 on: January 26, 2010, 12:14:40 AM »

http://[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #101 on: January 27, 2010, 06:13:59 PM »

1. Obama wins re-election in 2016 in an Eisenhower-like landslide. The GOP loses badly in other elections.

2. A Democrat very different from Obama wins the nomination and wins in an LBJ-like landslide in 2020. The GOP becomes irrelevant.

3. The Democrats split into two parties roughly even in electoral power. 

Term limits repealed?
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Bo
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« Reply #102 on: January 27, 2010, 06:20:01 PM »



I think that the political landscape in Presidential elections will look roughly like this. Red=Dem, Blue=Rep, Green=Swing States.
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Bo
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« Reply #103 on: January 27, 2010, 06:28:28 PM »

I think it will be Obama for two terms, followed by Cuomo with one term, followed by Brian Sandoval with two terms, followed by Chelsea Clinton with two terms.
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #104 on: January 28, 2010, 12:54:47 AM »


Popular vote tied


I predict states will become more partisan in the future.

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Mechaman
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« Reply #105 on: January 28, 2010, 02:47:35 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2010, 02:54:23 AM by Danforth Quayle »

Popular vote tied.


After the Great Realignment of 2012, with the election of Republican President Mike Huckabee, the GOP becomes the populist party and in effect forces the Democratic Party to become a moderate libertarian party. Huckabee enjoys a successful tenure and as a result the Republicans see electoral success.  In the 2012 election the differences between the parties and their new identities becomes very clear, with the big states of California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, and Florida all becoming swing states. The end result is an electoral tie that causes it to go to Congress.
The House Vote:



The Democratic nominee wins 26-24, however, the Republican ticket wins the Vice President after going through the Senate. The first biparty administration since John Adams and Thomas Jefferson takes place.

When I'm not so tired I'll do one where the opposite happens, Reps become more libertarian, Dems more populist.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #106 on: January 28, 2010, 03:01:05 AM »

Here is what the map leading up to election day looks like:



Where Red=Democrat, Blue=Republican, Green=Swing State.
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #107 on: January 28, 2010, 04:19:48 AM »

1. Obama wins re-election in 2016 in an Eisenhower-like landslide. The GOP loses badly in other elections.

2. A Democrat very different from Obama wins the nomination and wins in an LBJ-like landslide in 2020. The GOP becomes irrelevant.

3. The Democrats split into two parties roughly even in electoral power.

   

We want the truth, not your awful fantasies.
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rebeltarian
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« Reply #108 on: January 28, 2010, 03:23:45 PM »


Republicans become the party of computer nerds, x-treme sports fans, space gangsters and pot-heads
Democrats become the party of tree huggers, industry porn stars, "purists" and classical instrument musicians
The upper south decides they love Washington and want some cool, free stuff
The deep south decides they hate Washington and just want to be left the hell alone
Montana gets invaded by hippies
The southwest gets overrun with mexicans, perpetrating a massive white flight to Colorado
New Jersey becomes the Nevada of the east coast, "Dont tread on me!"
Minnesota continues to be the Vermont of the midwest, "we're smarter than the rest of you dumb hicks!"
California continues to be wacky just for the hell of it and flips back to the Republicans


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Sewer
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« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2010, 05:56:33 PM »

Republicans become the party of computer nerds, x-treme sports fans, space gangsters and pot-heads
Democrats become the party of tree huggers, industry porn stars, "purists" and classical instrument musicians

wow two ok parties.
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Derek
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« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2010, 12:31:30 AM »

[url]]
http://

How come my maps won't work?
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Derek
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« Reply #111 on: January 29, 2010, 12:45:17 AM »

Of course remember here's how the electoral vote I think will estimate to.

California 52                  Washington 10               Connecticut 7                 D.C. 3
Texas 41                        Missouri 10                     Mississippi 6                   New Mexico 6
Florida 31                      Colorado 10                    Arkansas 6                     Kentucky 8
New York 29                  South Carolina 9             Iowa 6                           Delaware 3
Illinois 18                       Oregon 9                        Nebraska 5                    Indiana 10
Pennsylvania 18            Wisconsin 9                    West Virginia 5
North Carolina 18          Minnesota 9                    Rhode Island 4
Georgia 17                    Alabama 9                       Hawaii 4
Arizona 14                    Louisiana 8                      New Hampshire 4
Michigan 14                  Nevada 8                         Maine 4
Virginia 14                    Oklahoma 7                     Wyoming 3
New Jersey 13             Kansas 7                          Alaska 3
Tennessee 11              Utah 7                              Montana 3
Massachusetts 11        Idaho 6                            North Dakota 3
Maryland 10                 Kansas 6                          South Dakota 3
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Mallow
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« Reply #112 on: December 06, 2015, 12:36:51 PM »

The Democratic Party aka the Socialist party believes in government provided health care for all as well as government paid college education for the poor and middle classes.  This will be paid by major tax increases.  On social issues they are still pro-choice and pro-gay marriage and believe the federal government has jurisdiction over both.

The Republican Party has split by 2024 into two parties.  The first one, maintains the Republican party name and believes in government funded health care and college education.  This will be paid with moderate tax increases, along with cuts in welfare programs and other social programs to try to keep taxes somewhat low.  On social issues, the party is pro-life and wants abortions banned nationally.  They are anti-gay marriage but want to pass federal civil union laws.

The second faction of the Republican party is made up of limited government conservatives and social libertarians.  They believe strongly in the constitution as written by the founding fathers and interpret it as such.  The government should not provide health care or education and the federal government is limited in it's scope.  More power is given to the states as was intended.  Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage are not part of the national debate.

Democrat party--43%
Republican party--25%
Limited government--32%

The Democrat party is strongest in the Northeast and West, but has a significant presence across most of the country except the mountain west.

The Republican party is made up of Evangelical Christians and socially conservative minority voters.

The Limited government party has strength across the country but not enough to win the election.  It's base is mostly part of the white population and has very little minority support.

We're more than halfway there, and this is looking the most promising IMO. Tongue
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #113 on: December 12, 2015, 09:57:51 AM »

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avashi
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« Reply #114 on: May 29, 2016, 01:31:58 PM »



Democratic States ≈ 248 Electoral Votes
Republican States ≈ 170 Electoral Votes
Tossup States ≈ 120 Electoral Votes


Note: This map can change based on the realignment of each party's platforms. If the Republican party moves more towards the center and is more lukewarm towards Hispanics, than states like Colorado and Nevada begin to be tossup states. Based on the 2020 census, we will see Florida and  Texas gain the most electoral votes. Based on demographic changes, the Midwest and Pennsylvania will lean Republican. They will also lose electoral votes based on the 2020 census. To close the massive electoral vote gap, Republicans must expand their base and appeal to Asian Americans and Hispanics. If they do this, they can be quite successful.

Potential Democratic candidates for President in this decade:
Andrew Cuomo
Cory Booker
Tim Kaine
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Kristen Gillibrand
Amy Klobuchar
Ken Salazar
Mark Warner
Deval Patrick

Potential Republican candidates for President in this decade:
Brian Sandoval
Paul Ryan
Joni Ernst
Susana Martinez
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Adam Kinzinger
Kelly Ayotte
Scott Brown
Ted Cruz


Feel free to give feedback!
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #115 on: October 13, 2016, 07:03:16 PM »


Doesn't matter. Let's take a look at a 50/50 year from 30 years ago, granted that's a longer time frame than this question asked but still.



Well that's a 50/50 election from 30 years ago and look how much has changed. Carter swept the South, something which probably no Democrat could do now, and he lost all of the West and parts of the Northeast. This is just 30 years of electoral change. Plus you have to factor in that the next 20 years, just like the past 20 years, wont be made up of constant 50/50 elections, unless we get into a rut which is basically equivalent of the period between 1872 and 1896. That's the thing. It is impossible for anyone to extrapolate what the map will look like twenty years out. Anyone could be right, of course, but my money is always on the on that looks like the least likely to happen. Since it only took 8 years from the South being the only Democratic stronghold during a landslide, in the 1856 election, to being the only Republican stronghold during a landslide, 1964, and only 16 years until it was won by over 70% of the vote by a Republican during a landslide, 1972.

This map was always my prediction for the future so I will stick with it. The Republicans become populists and the Democrats become moderate libertarians. Thus resulting in this map:



But I'm starting to think that my other prediction might be more realistic. Tongue

This is the 1976 map. There is no map in 1986. It was 30 years ago in 2006, it's 40 years ago now in 2016.
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