N.J. SEN 2018: Who's the most electable Republican against Menendez?

[MT Treasurer]

Even if 2018 is a massive Republican wave, Menendez will still win by double digits. Republicans can't win federal races in NJ, I'm not sure why some people are having trouble understanding this. Not to mention that NJ voters couldn't care less about corruption.

Then how do you explain why Bob Torricelli dropped out of his re-election race in 2002? He clearly withdrew from the race because of the accusations from the Senate Ethics Committee, which lead to low polling numbers and an expectation that he COULD lose to Doug Forrester.

Yeah, emphasis on COULD. NJ Democrats always find a way to win, and I'm pretty sure Torricelli would have won the general election hadn't he dropped out. Despite the combination of Bush's approval ratings hovering around 60+% in NJ + Republicans seriously contesting the race and nominating a strong candidate + Torricelli's unpopularity, Forrester was never really able to pull away. There was a Quinnipiac poll that showed Torricelli trailing by 4, but that's it. 2002 was supposed to be the perfect storm for Republicans, and they still got crushed in this race on election day.

Also, the country is much more polarized now than in 2002 and the state has only gotten more and more Democratic. NJ isn't sending a Republican to the Senate, this race is beyond Safe D.

[Suburbia]

Even if 2018 is a massive Republican wave, Menendez will still win by double digits. Republicans can't win federal races in NJ, I'm not sure why some people are having trouble understanding this. Not to mention that NJ voters couldn't care less about corruption.

Then how do you explain why Bob Torricelli dropped out of his re-election race in 2002? He clearly withdrew from the race because of the accusations from the Senate Ethics Committee, which lead to low polling numbers and an expectation that he COULD lose to Doug Forrester.

Yeah, emphasis on COULD. NJ Democrats always find a way to win, and I'm pretty sure Torricelli would have won the general election hadn't he dropped out. Despite the combination of Bush's approval ratings hovering around 60+% in NJ + Republicans seriously contesting the race and nominating a strong candidate + Torricelli's unpopularity, Forrester was never really able to pull away. There was a Quinnipiac poll that showed Torricelli trailing by 4, but that's it. 2002 was supposed to be the perfect storm for Republicans, and they still got crushed in this race on election day.

Also, the country is much more polarized now than in 2002 and the state has only gotten more and more Democratic. NJ isn't sending a Republican to the Senate, this race is beyond Safe D.

However, Menendez could underperform in 2018. A prime, young candidate that the NJ GOP could rally towards in 2018 could be Brian Hackett, the New Jersey State Director of the Humane Society and a GOP operative.

http://www.humanesociety.org/about/state/new_jersey/?referrer=https://www.google.com/

http://www.njbiz.com/article/20170322/INDINSIGHTS/170329944/nj-lawmakers-close-to-banning-
puppy-mills

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-efFhNltkkg

I would say the most electable Republicans against Menendez:
1. Tom Kean Jr.
2. Jack Ciattarelli
3. Jon Bramnick
4. Michael Doherty
5. Joe Plumeri
6. Jennifer Beck
7. Brian Hackett

[Suburbia]

Former Rep. Michael Ferguson would be a safe choice.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451070/chris-christie-new-jersey-senator-possibly

http://web.archive.org/web/20061101201439/http://www.fergusonforcongress.com/media.html

http://observer.com/2008/11/ferguson-and-kean-join-lance-for-last-minute-craford-campaigning/

[UncleSam]

I mean maybe if Menendez wins the primary after being convicted and Ds are not allowed to replace him on the ballot.

Literally the only way an R could win a federal race in NJ. And even that would be a one-term rental under bizarre and unique circumstances.

The odds are better that Ds could win in Utah or Alabama honestly. Not that any are > 1%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Christie has damaged the NJ Republicans to the point where they could possibly be reduced to California GOP level. That being said, Todd Whitman is probably the only Republican that is electable in the state seeing as she managed to keep her reputation intact even when she served in the Bush administration. But she's done with politics.

[Suburbia]

Celgene Executive Chairman Bob Hugin is considering running against Menendez.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/01/05/pharma-exec-with-ties-to-christie-considers-running-against-menendez-173662

He has ties to Christie. That may be a no-no even with the NJ GOP.

[King Lear]

People need to get over it, Bob Menendez will be reelected US Senator from New Jersey this November. Theirs no Republican that can beat him, and with his legal issues largely behind him no prominent New Jersey Democrat will challenge him, and honestly I’m really happy he beat back the fake charges levied against him.

[Doimper]

Christie has damaged the NJ Republicans to the point where they could possibly be reduced to California GOP level.

I'm not sure how anyone could say that with a straight face after Guadagno's performance.

[Suburbia]

This race is Likely D.