My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president. Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?
If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.
Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.
If the election goes to the House, then the Senate is almost certainly a Republican hold, and elects VP Pence. There are too many #NeverTrump House Republicans for Trump to possibly carry it, but there are also too many Trump loyalists for anyone to. There would be no winner and Pence would win the election. (I can provide a long version of this with likely House election results and names of #NeverTrump Republicans, but a quick look at Wikipedia would provide the same thing).
Any Republican could win in the House. But Trump cannot. And McMullin isn't running as a Republican, so that option is right out.
The smaller rural states trend Republican.
The Constitution limits the choices to the top three contenders. So likely, it will be Trump, Hillary or Johnson in that scenario. McMuffin is poling nowhere near Johnson (or even Stein) right now. (unless they are talking "top 3 contenders by EV," the language from house.gov is unclear.)
Source: http://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/
You are correct about the method. Let me go through the math for you:
- Republicans currently hold 33 state delegation majorities, but they're overstretched from their 2014 victories. Three of those -- Iowa (Blum), Colorado (Coffman), and Nevada (Hardy) are probably lost. This is the part of the calculation with the most guesswork; some other delegations are iffy, while those might hold. Anyway, down to 30 delegations with R majorities seems reasonable.
- Next, take away delegations where most members are #NeverTrump. This would be Utah (all 4), Alaska (Don Young), and Idaho (Mike Simpson is 50%). He is now down to 27.
- In other states, Democrats+NeverTrump Republicans are a majority; such states would deadlock and not be able to cast a vote. These include Arizona (R 5-4, McSally is anti-Trump, 4-4-1); Nebraska (R 2-1; Fortenberry is anti-Trump, so 1-1-1); Wisconsin (R 5-3, Grothman is anti-Trump, and I doubt Ryan would be inclined to back him either, 5-4-1); Michigan (R 9-5; Huizenga, Amash, Upton all anti-Trump; 6-5-3); Virginia (currently R 8-3, probably R 7-4 after the election; Comstock and Brat are both anti-Trump; 5-4-2); that makes 22.
You can quibble with some of those; I'm sure there are some who would bend to Trump for their reelection, and there are probably others who may have said publicly that they back him who would not actually do so in a vote. Either way, it's hard to come up with a count that doesn't leave him somewhere in the low 20s.
The Constitution gives one vote to each state, not proportional based on number of Reps in the delegation. In that scenario, Trump will take the majority of state delegations and win the Presidency, either by states voting as to whom the people voted for or voting as partisans.
The smaller rural states trend Republican.
Amusingly, this is actually what kills him. He probably gets the support from a majority of House
members in such a vote. It's just that Trump opponents are disproportionately concentrated in small rural states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, or Nebraska, and so he wouldn't have a majority of delegations.
