Another interesting point: Utah looks more like a European parliamentary election than a statewide presidential race
True, but only this circle because of the Republican candidate. Usually, UT is one of the strongest - if not the strongest - GOP state in presidential elections. W, McCain and Romney got around 70% each.
Obama got 34% in Utah in 2008. I think the 26% Trump got in this poll is a floor for him, so if Clinton can get to 35% a plurality win is possible. Something like:
Clinton 35
McMullin 30
Trump 26
Johnson 8
Stein 1
Otherwise I think McMullin! is a slight favorite to win
Clinton isn't getting 35% though. Her ceiling in Utah is much lower than Obama's was. Plus she hasn't polled above 27% there since July.
