UT: Y2 Analytics- Tie
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Author Topic: UT: Y2 Analytics- Tie  (Read 8322 times)
HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2016, 04:28:37 AM »

Am I the only one who wouldn't be bummed if Hillary won the state with less than 30 percent of the vote? The way this poll stands, 36 percent are voting against both candidates, and 62 percent of the state is voting against her. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Utah blue on TV and pink on Atlas, but yeah.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2016, 05:46:03 AM »

Beautiful. An actual 3 way
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Simfan34
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« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2016, 06:18:08 AM »

So this will catapult McMullin to the Senate in 2018, I'm guessing?
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Lachi
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2016, 06:19:53 AM »

lel

sorry...
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2016, 07:35:46 AM »

Quote
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Does McMuffin win if Romney endorses?

Romney is probably the reason why McMullin is running in the first place to be honest.

Now I'm curious to see whether Johnson has a shot at beating Trump in New Mexico. And what the hell is going out in Alaska? We have the right to get to know.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2016, 07:37:13 AM »


LOL, too funny for words. Trump has a comment for everything. Tongue
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2016, 07:45:37 AM »





https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/786183771229921280
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mark_twain
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2016, 07:50:43 AM »


Great news!

This state may bring some new color to the map!

But if Clinton wins, then great!

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2016, 07:53:27 AM »

Fantastic news! Now Trump can blame third parties for hurting him in the losing effort! I really look forward to his beautiful 'concession' speech explaining how voting works and how it was a mole in the most Republican states (and states around it like Arizona, Nevada, New Meixco) that cost him the race. Should be a nice contrast from his primary speech about how he would get some votes of the dropouts and you can't allocate 100% of their votes (which in fairness, is slightly more true because these are right-wing third parties but hilarious nonetheless)
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2016, 07:55:32 AM »

I don't really care who wins Utah, as long as it's not Trump. Smiley

I'd personally prefer Johnson to McMullin, although I have to say that McMullin seems pretty decent too, compared to 85% of Republicans that I can think of from the top of my mind. Perhaps because he's younger and more cosmopolitan than most Republican politicians. I haven't seen him making any offensive comment yet in any of the interviews I've been watching, which is pretty rare for any Republican politician, even female ones. He seems to me to be fairly hawkish though, which could be an issue. Probably more hawkish than Clinton.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2016, 07:57:31 AM »

if trump loses utah, this even outbalances an iowa win.......

less EV than romney who lost in a YUUUUGE LANDSLIIIIDE!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2016, 08:06:52 AM »

How delicious would it be if Trump comes third, or fourth, in Utah?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2016, 08:07:48 AM »

I hope Trump uses this as inspiration to launch a 2020 Independent bid just to stop the Republicans. That would be sweet, sweet justice.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2016, 08:37:22 AM »

LOL. This is brutal. Though I still think the Trumpster will win UT with around 45-50% of the vote.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2016, 08:40:45 AM »

LOL. This is brutal. Though I still think the Trumpster will win UT with around 45-50% of the vote.

not if those endorsements for other candidates from the local GOP should really drop, imho.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2016, 08:42:23 AM »

Please let Orrin Hatchs candidate lose. Looks like there are a couple of options where that can happen.
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Erc
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« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2016, 09:14:35 AM »

What's the all time record for the lowest popular vote %age for the winner of a state in US presidential elections?  I just looked up the 1912 race, and Wilson managed to win Idaho with just 32% of the vote.  Is that the record?  Any chance that Utah could actually beat that record this time?


It is the record; other close ones that don't quite match it are CA in 1860 and IL in 1824.

It's entirely possible that UT breaks it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

(To complete the 1912 analogy, taking Taft as a minor-party candidate, it would be highly amusing if Sanders won VT via write-in.)
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2016, 09:23:13 AM »

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?
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dspNY
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« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2016, 09:34:04 AM »

Another interesting point: Utah looks more like a European parliamentary election than a statewide presidential race
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2016, 09:41:50 AM »

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

Are you a masochist? Do you enjoy seeing human suffering?
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #45 on: October 12, 2016, 09:42:45 AM »

Another interesting point: Utah looks more like a European parliamentary election than a statewide presidential race

True, but only this circle because of the Republican candidate. Usually, UT is one of the strongest - if not the strongest - GOP state in presidential elections. W, McCain and Romney got around 70% each.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #46 on: October 12, 2016, 09:44:14 AM »

Now Stein needs to start campaigning in Salt Lake to block Hillary and allow a beautiful third color on the map.
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dspNY
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« Reply #47 on: October 12, 2016, 09:50:46 AM »

Another interesting point: Utah looks more like a European parliamentary election than a statewide presidential race

True, but only this circle because of the Republican candidate. Usually, UT is one of the strongest - if not the strongest - GOP state in presidential elections. W, McCain and Romney got around 70% each.

Obama got 34% in Utah in 2008. I think the 26% Trump got in this poll is a floor for him, so if Clinton can get to 35% a plurality win is possible. Something like:

Clinton 35
McMullin 30
Trump 26
Johnson 8
Stein 1

Otherwise I think McMullin! is a slight favorite to win
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Seneca
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« Reply #48 on: October 12, 2016, 09:51:30 AM »

What's the all time record for the lowest popular vote %age for the winner of a state in US presidential elections?  I just looked up the 1912 race, and Wilson managed to win Idaho with just 32% of the vote.  Is that the record?  Any chance that Utah could actually beat that record this time?


In 1860, Lincoln won California with 32.32% which comes close to Wilson's 32.08 in Idaho in 1912. John Q. Adams won Illinois with 32.46% in 1824. It seems really difficult, historically, to win with much less than 1/3rd of the vote. I expect a lot of Johnson supports will break towards McMullin if this trend holds.
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AGA
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« Reply #49 on: October 12, 2016, 09:55:12 AM »

It looks like there is now a genuine three-way race in Utah!
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