538: Here's how the election would look if only one gender voted

[heatcharger]

Full article.





Between Obama and Romney, there was a 15 point gender gap based on the polls up to this same time in 2012, while this year's gender gap is about 20 points on average.

Nothing too surprising, but I think it's possible Utah women might give Hillary a plurality.

[heatcharger]

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I would think the black women vote gives MS (and possibly LA) to Hillary in the absence of men, if they come out to vote at the same rate as last time.

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:

Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

As you can see the gap exists for both - people mostly believe their spouses will vote the same way as they intend to.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

19th Amendment ftw

[Nym90]

Another way to think of this is that the red states on the first map are probably the ones where Trump is winning women, while the blue states on the second map are the ones where Clinton is winning men.

[Santander]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Destroy masculinity.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

[OneJ]

I don't understand why MS wouldn't flip. Romney only won by 7 points among women. Trump would accelerate Mississippian women in Hillary's favor for sure.

[White Trash]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

He's not wrong.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

He's not wrong.

He's absolutely wrong, most of those states are pathetic in every statistic, and vile culturally.

[White Trash]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Nice joke.

He's not wrong.

He's absolutely wrong, most of those states are pathetic in every statistic, and vile culturally.

I would have to wholeheartedly disagree with them being vile culturally. But that's all subjective ain't it?

[HisGrace]

19th Amendment ftw

Women defeating Trump will more than make up for Warren Harding.

[Mr. Morden]

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

How is that a shy Clinton effect?  A "Shy X" effect is when people are reluctant to tell pollsters their true voting intentions.  Here they are telling the pollsters their voting intentions.  They're just not telling their husbands.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I suspect a similar contrast if you did all minorities vs caucasians.

[Pyro]

Even with only the male vote, Clinton still outperforms Dukakis.

[JA]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Oh yes, I hear all of the time how everyone envies the quality of life in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana...

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Oh yes, I hear all of the time how everyone envies the quality of life in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana...

Tennessee was awesome and I liked Huntsville a lot. I've lived in 5 different states and been to close to 40 of them.

[JA]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Oh yes, I hear all of the time how everyone envies the quality of life in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana...

Tennessee was awesome and I liked Huntsville a lot. I've lived in 5 different states and been to close to 40 of them.

I don't mean people can't love those states nor that there aren't wonderful parts and people in them, only that their quality of life isn't very enviable. A situation which isn't exactly their fault, mind you. Personally, I've never been to any of those states, but I do have family in KY and TN. They seem content with them, but I couldn't imagine living in states with that kind of highly religious, generally rural, Southern conservative culture with their high levels of poverty and relatively poor infrastructure.

[White Trash]

The red states in the first map are literally the best states in America.

Oh yes, I hear all of the time how everyone envies the quality of life in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana...

Tennessee was awesome and I liked Huntsville a lot. I've lived in 5 different states and been to close to 40 of them.

I don't mean people can't love those states nor that there aren't wonderful parts and people in them, only that their quality of life isn't very enviable. A situation which isn't exactly their fault, mind you. Personally, I've never been to any of those states, but I do have family in KY and TN. They seem content with them, but I couldn't imagine living in states with that kind of highly religious, generally rural, Southern conservative culture with their high levels of poverty and relatively poor infrastructure.

It's not for some people, and that's understandable. But for some, there's no place like it.

[angus]

Discuss.

Whom.  Whom will you vote for in November?

"for" is a preposition, and "for whom (will you vote)" is the understood prepositional phrase, so we should choose the objective form of the personal pronoun.  This is sixth-grade stiff, for crying out loud!

When even journalists, our university-trained word merchants, can't seem to get their heads out of their asses long enough to put together a proper interrogative statement, we are reminded of the reasons that world policy depends upon successful marketing of the sensationalistic whims of the cradled, consumerist, disinterested citizens of a pseudodemocracy who, given a choice among 320 million individuals, manage to find two of the most narcissistic, greedy, and spiteful among them to represent themselves to the world.

Sick, sad world.  We chose them; we deserve them.  

(Or, perhaps I should say, "us chose them."  Probably no one would notice the difference.)

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Discuss.

Whom.  Whom will you vote for in November?

"for" is a preposition, and "for whom (will you vote)" is the understood prepositional phrase, so we should choose the objective form of the personal pronoun.  This is sixth-grade stiff, for crying out loud!

When even journalists, our university-trained word merchants, can't seem to get their heads out of their asses long enough to put together a proper interrogative statement, we are reminded of the reasons that world policy depends upon successful marketing of the sensationalistic whims of the cradled, consumerist, disinterested citizens of a pseudodemocracy who, given a choice among 320 million individuals, manage to find two of the most narcissistic, greedy, and spiteful among them to represent themselves to the world.

Sick, sad world.  We chose them; we deserve them.  

(Or, perhaps I should say, "us chose them."  Probably no one would notice the difference.)

"Whom" is mostly going the way of "thee" and "thou".

[Crumpets]

This is why I'm straight.

[Figueira]

Similarly, a YouGov poll last week found that there is a gap between who married men think their wives will vote for, and how married women plan to vote:



Shy Hillary voters? Discuss.

How is that a shy Clinton effect?  A "Shy X" effect is when people are reluctant to tell pollsters their true voting intentions.  Here they are telling the pollsters their voting intentions.  They're just not telling their husbands.

Presumably some people are answering polls in front of their family members, so there will be some women who don't tell pollsters their true intentions because they don't want their husbands to hear.

However, the opposite effect might still exist, and in some cases it could simply be couples not talking about politics with each other.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

To sum up:

Without women, Democrats lose ALL the swing states, but still win the reliably D states.

Without men, all Republicans can win are the poorest states of the South, the lily-white Great Basin, and a bit of the high plains.