NBC/WSJ National: Clinton+11 (4-way) / +14

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This about describes the last 72 hours of Donald Trump's campaign:

Or this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl12dXYcUTo

[Devout Centrist]

A Clinton popular vote win of this magnitude would make for a far more interesting election night than a Obama 2008-style win. Various 'unusual' states at play, House in play, loads of Senate seats switching etc.

If Clinton wins by 7-12 points, the House is definitely in play.

Senate may break 53-47 or 54-46 Democratic.

[pbrower2a]

Quite possible, we are looking at an election result not seen in a long time...

True. The 1984 landslide victory of Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale was 32 years ago.

Mondale was a horrible campaigner, someone nominated for his long service to his Party and being overall a decent fellow in an impossible year, running against an effective incumbent.

Donald Trump is singularly inexperienced in electoral politics; he is an awful person; he has been a poor campaign strategist; and to top it all off he has won the nomination of the challenging party in an open-seat year. Sure, the incumbent President has been one of the better Presidents in history... but that means little this time.

With someone reasonably competent running for the Presidency, like Kasich or Romney, the Republicans should be winning the Presidency decisively.    

Here are two of the worst blow-outs in open-seat elections:

1920

 

1952



In both cases the Party recently out of the White House followed a troubled President. But something is very different this time. The incumbent President isn't troubled.  

Here is the most recent case of the 'outsider' Party nominating someone to follow a troubled President:

2008

 

Even with so many things going wrong for the Republican Party at the time, Barack Obama won by Reagan-like margins... but in only about half the states. He lost by Mondale-like margins in about a third of the states.  That's how cultural polarization works.

 

[Ljube]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

[Wells]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

Denial is a sad place to be in.

[dspNY]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

I don't think she's up 14 but Clinton +8 or +9 points is a very reasonable guess

[pbrower2a]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

Polls taken during a breaking scandal always look at first like outliers.

We will see more polls. We shall soon see whether this poll is reasonable or whether it is an outlier. I can't imagine anyone drifting toward Donald Trump, except perhaps for a sexual sadist

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

[Devout Centrist]

Well, my theory on America being the best country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Fixed

[Horus]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Then why are you here? Leave.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Then why are you here? Leave.

Oh, you don't need me to help drag McGinty across the finish line? Ok then...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

538 Has now incorporated this into the Presidential models.  +4.7 win in PP, +6.1 win in PO, and +6.6 win in now-cast.

I'm thinking we're headed to an 8-point Clinton win, barring more October delights.

[Person Man]

538 Has now incorporated this into the Presidential models.  +4.7 win in PP, +6.1 win in PO, and +6.6 win in now-cast.

I'm thinking we're headed to an 8-point Clinton win, barring more October delights.

Has any candidate overcome this sort of spanking in the past this late? Can a candidate gain 7 points in 3-4 weeks?

[ApatheticAustrian]

normally impossible but this race is effing volatile and there are so many clear leaks coming from both sides.......mad year.

[rafta_rafta]

Only 477 sample size. I guess more polls in the coming days would show a clear trend

[Maxwell]

Let's wait for more polls, but man this is yuuuuge.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

Polls taken during a breaking scandal always look at first like outliers.

We will see more polls. We shall soon see whether this poll is reasonable or whether it is an outlier. I can't imagine anyone drifting toward Donald Trump, except perhaps for a sexual sadist

Especially since part of Trump's appeal is his emphasis on being a "winner".  When it's clear to everyone that he's the projected loser in this race, he might even lose some support in that because he'll no longer look like a demi-god anymore as he struggles to find poll numbers to tweet.

This is unlikely.  The core of Trump's support lives in a media echo chamber of Breitbart, Drudge, Free Republic, etc.  They'll continue to believe he's winning until all the votes are in; and then they'll believe the count is a fraud.

This isn't new.  Even in 2012, Romney and his supporters believed that he would win until the votes were counted.  Remember Karl Rove on Fox saying "that can't be right?"  They were genuinely shocked.  If anything, most Trump supporters are even more isolated in their world view.

[Rand]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Remember when liberals and Democrats were the "hate America" crowd back in the Dubya days? Now it's the GOP and conservatives trashing America and idolizing a man who asks "how stupid is our country" in a nationally televised presidential debate. Oh how the embarrasing back-to-back losses to an African American liberal named Barack Hussein Obama has changed the once proud, patriotic and conservative shrinking minority of the United States.

[Maxwell]

We should obviously take Rassy with a tub of salt because it's pretty bad, but I mean even Rassy shows a 7 point Clinton lead, and their whole job is to be R hacks.

[mark_twain]

Don't tell me you believe this poll?
You lot are in for a rude awakening.

With half of the advantage, Hillary still crushes Donald...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Remember when liberals and Democrats were the "hate America" crowd back in the Dubya days? Now it's the GOP and conservatives trashing America and idolizing a man who asks "how stupid is our country" in a nationally televised presidential debate. Oh how the embarrasing back-to-back losses to an African American liberal named Barack Hussein Obama has changed the once proud, patriotic and conservative shrinking minority of the United States.

You're acting like I'm not part of both crowds. America has always been bad. Obama has made it less bad, but you can't fix stupid.

[Wells]

I'd just like to point out that this is the most recent poll we have. There are three polls from October 3-9 that average out to Clinton +3, one poll from October 5-9 that has Clinton +7, one from October 7-9 that's Clinton +8, and now this poll (Oct. 8-9) is Clinton +11. It's very clear what's happened, especially if you look at the reports of internal polls and Gallup favorability.

[Dr. Arch]

This goes beyond the numbers she polled after the convention bounce, correct?

[Fitzgerald]

Well, my theory on America being the worst country on the face of the earth has been proven right yet again.

Then why are you here? Leave.

Oh, you don't need me to help drag McGinty across the finish line? Ok then...

No, we don't. Leave, you Goddamn Nazi traitor, and let real Americans have their celebration.

[Wells]

This goes beyond the numbers she polled after the convention bounce, correct?

Her highest polling after the convention was +14, from Marist. This poll, taken at the same time period was Clinton +9 then, 1-2 points higher than the average.