NBC/WSJ National: Clinton+11 (4-way) / +14

[dspNY]

A legitimate "shock poll".

This is one of those polls that makes me think Trump is in or close to "insert unpopular celebrity name" territory

[Dr. Arch]

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

Whoa

[Mallow]

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

Don't they account for that in the topline numbers, though?

[Devout Centrist]

72% of Republicans are backing Trump and this lines up with PPP saying Trump is in the 70s in 2/3 of their polls.

This is could get really ugly for GOP. I mean we are talking about a 1988 type of landslide.

This could potentially be bigger than that in the popular vote. The largest PV victory post 1984 was +8.5 by Bill Clinton in 1996. This could be close to double digits, a rarity since 1984.

[Bojack Horseman]

This about describes the last 72 hours of Donald Trump's campaign:

[Person Man]

With these numbers, Hillary wins all the battleground states and might force the battle into Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina. Montana, Alaska, and maybe Texas will be reasonable. The rest will still be a Trump landslide.

[heatcharger]

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

Don't they account for that in the topline numbers, though?

Perhaps, but it means they had a smaller sample to work with when weighting the results.

[Speed of Sound]

Interesting though that Romney back in 2012 was down 35-58 with this. Was Obama really that unpopular with Republicans?

Absolutely he was/is. Have you forgotten that he's black?

[ApatheticAustrian]

sample too small and too early but promising.

regarding all battleground state...if iowa is not voting rep this year, it is never going again.

[dspNY]

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

Whoa

No, the poll says 71% non-Hispanic white, which is a reasonable estimate. They include Hispanics who also classify as white in that 75% number

[pbrower2a]

Assuming a uniform swing, a 11-point Clinton win would look like:

Not as pronounced as you might think

14 point Clinton win:

But, if you bring it up to a 17-point margin:

20 point margin:

24 point margin:

Now, the flaw in this is that it doesn't factor in elasticity or trends.  For example, I'm far more worried about Alaska than Mississippi.

It won't be an even swing. The bigger swings are most likely in states that Barack Obama lost badly in 2012 (like Texas) than in states that he won by huge margins. There are more potential Romney-to-Clinton (proportionately) voters in Texas than in California, in Indiana than in Massachusetts,  or in Georgia than in Michigan. 

This scandal will strike hard and fast because it has overtones of S-E-X. M-O-N-E-Y doesn't have as swift in turning people against a political candidate than does S-E-X. There is no ambiguity.

[Cruzcrew]

Could this meant that Trump is actually losing the white vote?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the poll:
https://www.scribd.com/document/327067170/161027-NBCWSJ-October-N-500-Poll

Noticed a couple of interesting things:

First, the voting for Trump/against Clinton numbers have dropped from 41-51 last month to 37-52 (5 point swing).
Interesting though that Romney back in 2012 was down 35-58 with this. Was Obama really that unpopular with Republicans?

and:

Generic Congressional number is Democrats +7, up 4 points since their last poll.

Oh, certainly.  There were (and are) many Republicans who believe that Obama is Evil incarnate.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Could this meant that Trump is actually losing the white vote?

At this point, Trump probably wins the white male vote (shame on you all), but loses the overall white vote.

[Rand]

At least the lurking pussygrabber has the USC Dornsife poll to tweet to his gullible base.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Beautiful. Restores my faith in the American people.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

A (mini) landslide for Hillary would make me so happy for her. She deserves it after all the slander and baseless hatred she's received for decades.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

StatesPoll! Please unskew! We need your eternal wisdom!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Maybe it's a silly place to discuss this, but it makes me confident that SNL's portrayal of Trump and the public's perception of him will begin to converge in a meaningful way. It happened with Palin.

At first, I thought Baldwin's Trump was just too.... gross-looking. But portraying him as a sweaty, snivelling, melting pile of sludge is just spot on. I think this is the caricature that will stick and the attack that people will begin to define him with. A gross slobby pig.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

A (mini) landslide for Hillary would make me so happy for her. She deserves it after all the slander and baseless hatred she's received for decades.

Someone else who sees things the right way.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

538 hasn't added this yet... have they? I don't see it

[OneJ]

538 hasn't added this yet... have they? I don't see it

Nope.

[Phony Moderate]

A Clinton popular vote win of this magnitude would make for a far more interesting election night than a Obama 2008-style win. Various 'unusual' states at play, House in play, loads of Senate seats switching etc.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

538 hasn't added this yet... have they? I don't see it

Nope.

Hmmm... they added the generic-Congress numbers though. Stange.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be sure, hillary has been the underdog in many ways, especially since the benghazi-witchhung struck email-gold.

she has the money and the organization but she would have had problems against many less flawed candidates.