NBC/WSJ National: Clinton+11 (4-way) / +14
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  NBC/WSJ National: Clinton+11 (4-way) / +14
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ National: Clinton+11 (4-way) / +14  (Read 10521 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2016, 11:13:04 AM »

Clinton is actually doing better with LV than RV by a % point.

Democrats are enthusiastic and Republicans are not!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2016, 11:13:11 AM »

Assuming a uniform swing, a 11-point Clinton win would look like:



Not as pronounced as you might think

14 point Clinton win:



But, if you bring it up to a 17-point margin:


20 point margin:


24 point margin:


Now, the flaw in this is that it doesn't factor in elasticity or trends.  For example, I'm far more worried about Alaska than Mississippi.
I call BS on the first 2. Arizona is already close and Georgia hasn't been polled in a while. The result you posted looks more like Clinton +6 or +7.
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NHI
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« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2016, 11:13:18 AM »

Quite possible, we are looking at an election result not seen in a long time...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #28 on: October 10, 2016, 11:13:47 AM »

This poll might re-initiate the collapse of support from R members.
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Iosif
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« Reply #29 on: October 10, 2016, 11:14:13 AM »

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NHI
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« Reply #30 on: October 10, 2016, 11:14:48 AM »

Imagine if more tapes are revealed. He could do worse than Goldwater.

Seriously looks like it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2016, 11:15:24 AM »

Clinton +14 is the best result for Clinton in the history of this poll between her and Trump.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2016, 11:15:29 AM »

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dspNY
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« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2016, 11:16:27 AM »

“What do you think Republican candidates for Congress should do on [the issue of the Trump hot mic]?”
Responses from Republican voters:
-continue to support Trump as the nominee 67%
-call on Trump to drop out of the race 14%
-say they can’t support him anymore 9%
-not sure 10%


Trump has only two-thirds of the party reliably supporting him. Almost a quarter of Republicans either want him gone or are looking to distance themselves
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No War, but the War on Christmas
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« Reply #34 on: October 10, 2016, 11:16:36 AM »

Can we vote now? Like, right now?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: October 10, 2016, 11:16:51 AM »

Generic Congressional number is Democrats +7, up 4 points since their last poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: October 10, 2016, 11:17:37 AM »


We already are in a lot of states.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #37 on: October 10, 2016, 11:18:17 AM »

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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #38 on: October 10, 2016, 11:21:26 AM »

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #39 on: October 10, 2016, 11:21:42 AM »

The fact that the RV number is C+13 tells you this isn't just enthusiasm... people are deciding not to participate at all or are switching their votes from undecided to her. It's October 10th... I cannot imagine how he comes back into this.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #40 on: October 10, 2016, 11:22:07 AM »

Hillary just grabbed Trump by the balls.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #41 on: October 10, 2016, 11:22:55 AM »

first want to double-check.

i mean it's clear that she is in the front seat, just not how far or big.

and it seems to be amaaaaaaazingly hard to find enough republicans right now.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #42 on: October 10, 2016, 11:23:50 AM »

72% of Republicans are backing Trump and this lines up with PPP saying Trump is in the 70s in 2/3 of their polls.

This is could get really ugly for GOP. I mean we are talking about a 1988 type of landslide.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #43 on: October 10, 2016, 11:25:00 AM »

Low sample size, but still VERY encouraging.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #44 on: October 10, 2016, 11:25:43 AM »

Good news but people still gotta vote.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2016, 11:26:44 AM »


Supposedly they are still out in the field and are going to do a post debate poll as well.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2016, 11:27:10 AM »

first want to double-check.

i mean it's clear that she is in the front seat, just not how far or big.

and it seems to be amaaaaaaazingly hard to find enough republicans right now.

Fair... totally need more info. However, a few things.

Party ID is only D+6, very much in line with this poll in the past.
Donald Trump's overall favorability in this poll is actually 1 point higher than in September!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2016, 11:28:31 AM »

A legitimate "shock poll".
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #48 on: October 10, 2016, 11:33:32 AM »


Noticed a couple of interesting things:

First, the voting for Trump/against Clinton numbers have dropped from 41-51 last month to 37-52 (5 point swing).
Interesting though that Romney back in 2012 was down 35-58 with this. Was Obama really that unpopular with Republicans?

and:

Generic Congressional number is Democrats +7, up 4 points since their last poll.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2016, 11:34:02 AM »

Folks, this poll might be understating her lead. Only 5% Hispanic when the 2012 electorate was 10% Hispanic.

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