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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Michigan and Minnesota in 2004
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Author Topic: Michigan and Minnesota in 2004  (Read 426 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: October 09, 2016, 02:00:51 pm »

Bush lost MI and MN in 2004 by around 3.5%, not a huge margin but certainly not a squeaker. Yet, the networks did not call them for Kerry until roughly 5:00 AM EST after election night. Any idea why it took them so long?
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 02:07:19 pm »

The models may not have been precise enough to predict how strong the conservative turnout for Bush would be and maybe how strong the Nader voters would go back to being Democrats.  Who knows? Either way, those were two states that Karl Rove made it clear (after the fact) that they attacked and attacked and attacked to keep Kerry on the defensive, even though they knew Bush wasn't winning them. 

If I'm correct through, some of the networks did call MN and MI around 2am, but by that time, we all knew it was coming down to OH.
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