Louisiana in 2008 and 2012
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 08, 2016, 09:21:09 PM »
« edited: October 08, 2016, 09:50:53 PM by Chrome »

In 2008, the popular vote swung to the Democrats by an impressive 9 points, but Louisiana swung Republican, suggesting a strong Republican trend occurring in the state. However, in 2012, the popular vote swung Republican by over 3 points, and Louisiana swung Democratic. What caused these drastically different trends?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 09:35:42 PM »

2008 can be explained by Katrina, as it disproportionately displaced African-Americans. 2012 can be explained by that same demographic returning home.
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AGA
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2016, 09:53:20 PM »

2008 can be explained by Katrina, as it disproportionately displaced African-Americans. 2012 can be explained by that same demographic returning home.

That is probably the main reason, but after checking the county map, I saw that the swings also happened in the some of inland areas of Louisiana that were less affected by Katrina.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 12:28:02 AM »

2008 can be explained by both a black electorate disproportionately affected by Katrina and also the Republican trend of whites (most harshly in Acadania). 2012 can be explained by the slight drop of white turnout and a slight increase in black turnout (+ Katrina effect was mostly over). No demographic swung Democratic, rather it was a difference in turnout (and can explain the democratic swing in Mississippi as well as a lack of Republican swing in other deep south states).
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White Trash
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 12:18:47 PM »

The Black vote was severely depressed in both 2008 and 2012 compared to other Southern states due to Katrina and a handful of other economic factors (infrastructure has always been notoriously bad in Black areas in Louisiana). Also, the White vote is much more Republican than in other states like Georgia or South Carolina due to a lack of a large urban and suburban white population.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 11:34:33 AM »

Louisiana's always been out of sync with the nation. It voted for Clinton by 12 points in '96 when he was only winning by 8 nationally, then voted for Bush by 8 points in '00 when he was losing by '0.5 nationally!
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Hydera
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2016, 01:11:36 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 01:15:20 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2004&fips=22071&off=0&elect=0&f=0

There was a large drop in turnout in New Orleans due to Katrina making residents leave.

152,610 to 117,102. Which is a drop of 35,508 voters.


East Baton Rogue whether its higher blackturnout or a migration of New Orleanians to the area. Increased its turnout for the democrat candidate about 17K.

Meanwhile in 2008 while the voter totals for the GOP candidate dropped in most of the country there was a noticeable uptick of votes for the GOP candidates mainly in Southern States.   

But there was a shift of voters from Kerry to McCain which is likely that a lot of white democrats simply didn't like Obama and its likely because of race.

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