IL-GS Strategy Group (R): Duckworth +4
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  IL-GS Strategy Group (R): Duckworth +4
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Author Topic: IL-GS Strategy Group (R): Duckworth +4  (Read 3807 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 07, 2016, 02:27:29 PM »
« edited: April 16, 2021, 06:10:29 PM by MT Treasurer »

41% Tammy Duckworth (D)
37% Mark Kirk (R, inc.)

This is basically a Kirk internal, so yeah... not good for him.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326741685/Mark-Kirk-s-internal-polling
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2016, 02:31:17 PM »

I saw this too, and was going to post it. This seat is gone.

Bold prediction: Duckworth wins this year, loses in 6 years to a Republican, who, in turn, loses to a Democrat in 2028.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2016, 02:35:20 PM »

Ouch. I still don't think a blanching is in the cards though.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2016, 02:41:22 PM »

I saw this too, and was going to post it. This seat is gone.

Bold prediction: Duckworth wins this year, loses in 6 years to a Republican, who, in turn, loses to a Democrat in 2028.

While I'm aware that this seat has switched parties every cycle in the past since Braun lost to Fitzgerald, Duckworth isn't going to lose to a Republican in Illinois, even in a midterm.
The fact that she is WAY underperforming Clinton even as Trump is in the middle of what could be an implosion shows she is not as strong of a candidate as people think. If 2022 is at least a neutral year, Dold can win. Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, and Adam Kinzinger are possibilities, but they're all pro-life and pro-gun, which will really hurt them.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2016, 02:42:25 PM »

I saw this too, and was going to post it. This seat is gone.

Bold prediction: Duckworth wins this year, loses in 6 years to a Republican, who, in turn, loses to a Democrat in 2028.

While I'm aware that this seat has switched parties every cycle in the past since Braun lost to Fitzgerald, Duckworth isn't going to lose to a Republican in Illinois, even in a midterm.
The fact that she is WAY underperforming Clinton even as Trump is in the middle of what could be an implosion shows she is not as strong of a candidate as people think. If 2022 is at least a neutral year, Dold can win. Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, and Adam Kinzinger are possibilities, but they're all pro-life and pro-gun, which will really hurt them.

Do you think a Democrat will be president in 2022?
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2016, 02:42:50 PM »

Kirk isn't going to get blanched, but yeah, he's probably toast.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2016, 02:54:23 PM »

I saw this too, and was going to post it. This seat is gone.

Bold prediction: Duckworth wins this year, loses in 6 years to a Republican, who, in turn, loses to a Democrat in 2028.

While I'm aware that this seat has switched parties every cycle in the past since Braun lost to Fitzgerald, Duckworth isn't going to lose to a Republican in Illinois, even in a midterm.
The fact that she is WAY underperforming Clinton even as Trump is in the middle of what could be an implosion shows she is not as strong of a candidate as people think. If 2022 is at least a neutral year, Dold can win. Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, and Adam Kinzinger are possibilities, but they're all pro-life and pro-gun, which will really hurt them.

Do you think a Democrat will be president in 2022?
Overall, no. But if that is the case, Davis, Roskam, or Kinzinger can win. Dold can still win in a 2022 midterm with a Republican president, unless it's a 2006/2008 level wave. Do not underestimate Dold, or overestimate Duckworth. If Dold wins this year, I think he wins again in 2018, and then becomes entrenched.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2016, 04:19:19 PM »

Maybe Duckworth will get appointed Veterans' Affairs Secretary.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2016, 04:21:55 PM »

I don't think he'll get Blanched, but he will get Pryor'd. An incumbent putting out an internal showing him at 37% and down 4 is one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2016, 05:10:48 PM »

Maybe Duckworth will get appointed Veterans' Affairs Secretary.

Not while Rauner is in office, for reasons that should be obvious.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2016, 05:13:18 PM »

I think it's safe to say that Simon Institute Poll was an outlier.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2016, 05:15:55 PM »

Maybe Duckworth will get appointed Veterans' Affairs Secretary.

Not while Rauner is in office, for reasons that should be obvious.
If she loses in 2022, I can see her being VA Secretary under a Democrat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2016, 08:26:35 PM »

I saw this too, and was going to post it. This seat is gone.

Bold prediction: Duckworth wins this year, loses in 6 years to a Republican, who, in turn, loses to a Democrat in 2028.

While I'm aware that this seat has switched parties every cycle in the past since Braun lost to Fitzgerald, Duckworth isn't going to lose to a Republican in Illinois, even in a midterm.
The fact that she is WAY underperforming Clinton even as Trump is in the middle of what could be an implosion shows she is not as strong of a candidate as people think. If 2022 is at least a neutral year, Dold can win. Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, and Adam Kinzinger are possibilities, but they're all pro-life and pro-gun, which will really hurt them.

Do you think a Democrat will be president in 2022?
Overall, no. But if that is the case, Davis, Roskam, or Kinzinger can win. Dold can still win in a 2022 midterm with a Republican president, unless it's a 2006/2008 level wave. Do not underestimate Dold, or overestimate Duckworth. If Dold wins this year, I think he wins again in 2018, and then becomes entrenched.

No Republican is going to be entrenched in a D+8 district in this polarized era.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2016, 07:29:08 AM »

Lean D
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2018, 07:20:46 PM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha

GOP can win Illinois once but winning twice is next to impossible in the current era.

Downstate and the Collar counties have too many contradictory demands.

If a Republican managed to win a lower ballot statewide office with more administrative duties.. maybe.. a re-election is possible.

I wonder if polls will show Rauner close and ends up losing by 15 to 16 points on election night? I do worry of his financial advantage over Biss or Pritzkler imploding.
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Doimper
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« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2018, 09:37:35 PM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha

GOP can win Illinois once but winning twice is next to impossible in the current era.

Downstate and the Collar counties have too many contradictory demands.

If a Republican managed to win a lower ballot statewide office with more administrative duties.. maybe.. a re-election is possible.

I wonder if polls will show Rauner close and ends up losing by 15 to 16 points on election night? I do worry of his financial advantage over Biss or Pritzkler imploding.

Rauner is toast, but in retrospect, polls like this one should've tipped us off that something was up in 2016.
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