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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16
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Author Topic: WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16  (Read 1265 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 06, 2016, 11:58:34 pm »
« edited: October 07, 2016, 12:36:36 am by heatcharger »

http://komonews.com/news/local/komo-poll-clinton-has-big-washington-lead-big-unfavorables-inlsee-leads

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 33%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 31%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2016, 12:15:32 am »

The margin looks about right, though third parties won't end up getting that much.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2016, 12:35:41 am »

The margin looks about right, though third parties won't end up getting that much.

The two-way is 50/33, with 4% undecided and I assume 13% "not voting" (no).

The non-pick rate in the two-way is 5% for Democrats, 11% for Republicans, and 35% for Independents (lol).
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2016, 04:36:11 am »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3? 
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2016, 04:37:58 am »

Margins looks correct. I think it will end up in the range 56-39%.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2016, 04:44:31 am »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 04:53:19 am by Alcon »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2016, 09:26:39 am »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2016, 12:09:52 pm »

This looks about right, though I agree that the third-party vote will probably be a bit lower than that.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2016, 12:12:00 pm »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.

People viewed WA as Safe Obama in 2012, though, and third party voting was only a bit higher than the nation as a whole. I could buy something like 54-37, but I doubt we'll see over 15% voting third party.

I'll also be interested to see the results in Yakima. I expect Trump to win it, but it might end up closer than in 2008 or 2012.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2016, 12:51:44 pm »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.

All this is awesome. How do you see these swings affecting state leg races?
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2016, 01:42:33 pm »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.

People viewed WA as Safe Obama in 2012, though, and third party voting was only a bit higher than the nation as a whole. I could buy something like 54-37, but I doubt we'll see over 15% voting third party.

Obama and Romney were much more palatable than Clinton and Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2016, 01:43:12 pm »

Safe Dem. Have absolutely no idea why Trump wasted his time there in August
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2016, 03:53:16 am »
« Edited: October 08, 2016, 03:55:56 am by Fuzzybigfoot »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.

Gun to my head, I probably would've picked Trump to win WA-3.  Given recent events, I'm not so sure.  As for WA-8, I would've guessed Hillary 49%-46%.  
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